Twilight Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

News:

Download the Twilight Strategy e-book!

Pages: [1]

Author Topic: South Korea  (Read 5060 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

blitzgordon

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 47
  • Respect: +4
    • View Profile
South Korea
« on: January 02, 2013, 05:49:04 am »
0

Hi everyone!
I was wondering, and perhaps hoping to start a discussion, about South Korea.
If the US player does not draw Korean War and the USSR invests two ops in SK sometime the first turn, how should the US respond?

Investing in SK is very risky before Japan and/or Taiwan is taken, and
Taking Japan/Taiwan is a complete waste of ops compared to the other stuff US need to be doing on turn 1.

To me, the ultimate insult is when USSR places two inf in SK, and you can't really respond without risking the war, and then Soviet takes control of SK by playing Korean War for ops.

So, if you're US and you do not draw Korean War, how would you go about to try to control SK?

I'm thinking Norad might play a huge role in taking/retaking SK, but I'm interested in what you guys/girls think.

Aaaaaand... go!
Logged

MarlesChartel

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 81
  • Wargameroom username: MarlesChartel
  • Respect: +20
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2013, 12:06:25 pm »
0

I think that US should place 2 ops in South Korea before the USSR gets a chance to move in, even before the Korean War has happened. Of course, if the US has Korean War, they should trigger it before moving in. But I think that taking a battleground for 2 ops is too low of a cost to justify not taking South Korea.

Another exception, though, is if Asia scoring has come out but Korean War has not. In that case, the ops are about as likely to be USSR influence as US influence by the next time Asia scoring comes around.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2013, 12:07:38 pm by MarlesChartel »
Logged

Cal

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 148
  • Respect: +55
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2013, 12:52:50 pm »
+1

Hi blitz,

What you bring up is a tough situation and every experienced USSR player should try to inflict it on the US because it is a problem with not an easy solution. Let's evaluate the types of responses the US could have:

1. Do nothing. This leaves the USSR to play the Korean War card for the event, in which case he'll control South Korea if it succeeds. If it fails, then either he'll be prompted to put more influence there to take control or a full bidding war can start. The USSR will probably have the advantage here if he still holds the China Card. In this case your best hope to take South Korea back is through NORAD, Ussuri River Skirmish influence, and the China Card.

2. Immediately start a bidding war for South Korea, or sink enough influence in it to control it all at once. This is generally speaking what inexperienced US players do, or at least US players who are willing to risk the 1/2 chance of losing South Korea. The main motivation for doing this, usually, is that the USSR got to Thailand first and they're trying to stave off domination before the USSR can get around to taking Pakistan/India. Once the US declares they're making a bidding war for S. Korea, the USSR will usually either play the Korean War card immediately (potentially allowing the US the initiative in the bidding war in exchange for immediately ending it all-for-nothing), or simply continuing the bidding war. A bidding war this early in the game is not really favorable to either side, especially a country that is difficult to realign like South Korea.

3. Make a preventive measure: headline US-Japan Mutual Defense Pact. Decreasing the chance of the Korean War card succeeding from 1/2 to 1/3 is very significant in terms of probability. It encourages the USSR to try to take all of South Korea in one lump placement of influence, if at all. The US can also take control of South Korea a bit more confidently.

All of these have advantages and drawbacks. There is no 100% solution.

Though I would go so far to say that losing South Korea will not usually break the US in Asia by itself, and if the USSR spends the China Card to take all of South Korea at once, then that's likely in the US' favor. Focus on taking SE Asia and possibly stealing Pakistan/India than South Korea.
Logged

blitzgordon

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 47
  • Respect: +4
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2013, 01:31:59 pm »
0

So... IŽll give you a scenario to think about, sort of like a chess exercise. All things equal, no particular problem cards in your hand, normal ops strenght, all of that. Assume in this scenario that you hold one but not both of Decol/Destal.

Turn 1:
Headline is something irrelevant, say Suez Crisis and olympic games.

USSR AR1: Coup Iran with a 4 card. USSR influence in Iran is now 2. DEFCON is 4.
US AR 1: Counter coup with a 3 (or a four, doesn't matter). Coup fails, DEFCON is 3.
USSR AR 2: plays a 3/4 op card, moves 1 inf into Pakistan, 2 ops to South Korea.
US AR 2: ???

What would you do as US in this spot? Assume any cards you like except Korean War or that USSR is under RS/P. Go to Malaysia, sure. but what about that tricky SK situation?
The best response would in my opinion be something that get you to Malaysia, controls Japan in response to the Korean War, AND matches or trumps USSR influence in SK. But this is demands way to many ops.
So how would you go about it?
Logged

Riku Riekkinen

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 56
  • Respect: +15
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2013, 02:29:53 pm »
+1

US AR2: Coup Iran if you have a reasonable card for it.

Suez crisis is in fact a very relevant headline to me. Now US is in fear or being blocked from ME for a while. In fact so relevant that I would assume most USSR players doing coup at their AR2 just to block US from getting back to ME.
Logged

blitzgordon

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 47
  • Respect: +4
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2013, 02:59:01 pm »
0

Riku: Good point. What if we substitute Suez Crisis with a failed Arab-Israeli war, then?
Same scenario, that being the only change. Or would you say USSR player still coups again on their AR 2? I don't think I would.
What would you do?
Logged

blitzgordon

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 47
  • Respect: +4
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2013, 03:01:10 pm »
0

Also, in response to what Cal said, I don't think I'll ever see a US player HL:ing US/Japan. Was that really what you meant? Or did I misunderstand?
Logged

Cal

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 148
  • Respect: +55
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #7 on: January 02, 2013, 03:51:57 pm »
+1

So... IŽll give you a scenario to think about, sort of like a chess exercise. All things equal, no particular problem cards in your hand, normal ops strenght, all of that. Assume in this scenario that you hold one but not both of Decol/Destal.

Turn 1:
Headline is something irrelevant, say Suez Crisis and olympic games.

USSR AR1: Coup Iran with a 4 card. USSR influence in Iran is now 2. DEFCON is 4.
US AR 1: Counter coup with a 3 (or a four, doesn't matter). Coup fails, DEFCON is 3.
USSR AR 2: plays a 3/4 op card, moves 1 inf into Pakistan, 2 ops to South Korea.
US AR 2: ???

What would you do as US in this spot? Assume any cards you like except Korean War or that USSR is under RS/P. Go to Malaysia, sure. but what about that tricky SK situation?
I have to say that with Iran at 0/2, I would not coup back Iran here. Even if the coup succeeds, I would need to spend a 4 op card and roll a 5 or 6 to get influence to 3 or 4, otherwise I think with 1 or 2 US influence in Iran and defcon at 3 that the USSR will just make the final coup to get defcon to 2. Might be slightly more attractive at Iran 0/1, maybe. Even then, if I don't have both Decolonization and De-Stalinization, giving the USSR initiative at defcon 3 is just begging for him to play one of them and sneak to SE Asia.

I think I would do nothing at that point. I would spend a three or four op card and prioritize Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and Malaysia. If the USSR controls Iran, that means they have presence and a bg in the MidEast and the US has nothing. That's a 4VP flip there, and it can be offset just with one influence point to Lebanon. If the USSR is significantly distracted enough to shift focus to the MidEast, so much the better.

If I have a spare op, I might put just 1 influence to South Korea. If the USSR holds Korean War, they might jump the gun and play it when the country is 2/2, leaving it with a modest overcontrol of 0/4 if it activates, but also within the sphere that I as the US can re-take it with one 3op card to 5/2 next AR if it fails.

Also, if the USSR takes control of Pakistan with only Iran to defend against Indo-Pakistani War, I might just play it and try to get the 1/3 success.

Also, in response to what Cal said, I don't think I'll ever see a US player HL:ing US/Japan. Was that really what you meant? Or did I misunderstand?
I am serious. I wouldn't suggest this every time, and especially not if you have something powerful like Defectors, Marshall Plan, Red Scare/Purge or a scoring card to punt, but US-Japan can be a surprisingly effective Turn1 headline.  Look at the situation in Asia at the start of the game: USSR has North Korea, US has Australia. If the USSR gets even one non-bg from this position, he scores a cheap and quick domination in a high-scoring region. However, if the US suddenly has Japan, then the situation is much more equal. The USSR would have to spend a few more rounds taking another bg (either wasting a high card to steal South Korea, having Decolonization/De-Stalinization to get to Thailand, or trying to get to Pakistan and risk being his by Indo-Pakistani War). At the same time Korean War's power is greatly reduced. I know the usual wisdom is to either use the ops to take Japan and leave the card in the deck, or wait for the USSR to play it for you, but there are advantages to playing it yourself.
Logged

Nightlyraver

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 50
  • Respect: +9
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2013, 05:20:32 pm »
+1

My two cents:

I wouldn't be so worried about, to be perfectly honest.  I really do like having S. Korea as the US, but it's not so necessary to balance the scales.  I don't bother investing in S. Korea as the US if I don't have Japan (if he uses US/Japan to coup Iran, then things change).  The prospect of wasting precious ops to contest something that you have a 50% chance of losing is not attractive to me.  If USSR wants to invest ops in it, that's fine by me.

I have two thoughts about why this isn't a problem.  First, you can use the ops to start gobbling up the SE Asia countries on the cheap.  This will usually prevent a Domination.  You also get the points when SE Asia scoring comes up.  It's a better investment, IMHO.  Second, if you just do nothing in this spot then you are free to focus on other regions.  If you can simultaneously stop his Asia domination while also securing domination in Europe or ME, then you have come out way ahead.
Logged

Riku Riekkinen

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 56
  • Respect: +15
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2013, 07:36:26 pm »
0

Well if US was still in Israel:

US AR2: 2 to Egypt, 1 to Malaysia
Logged

blitzgordon

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 47
  • Respect: +4
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2013, 04:35:47 pm »
+1

Riku:
Ok, so then you essentially give up on SK, I take it?
I think, in that spot, that I would put one in Malaysia, and at least one in SK.
Or, more likely, one i Malaysia, one in SK to make it 2/2, and one i Lebanon to secure presence. Maybe substitue Lebanon for Jordan if I'm holding ME scoring or feel safe that I have one more turn for presence.
Logged

blitzgordon

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 47
  • Respect: +4
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2013, 04:36:51 pm »
0

RE:CAL
Interesting approach, I'm not convinced but I will think it over for sure!
Logged

darune

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11
  • Respect: +3
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2013, 06:14:18 am »
+1

If USSR invests 2 ops in S.Korea before the war, then as US im going to ignore S.Korea. For me its either i put 2 inf there first as US or USSR gets it, getting into a bidding war pre-war is too expensive/risky.

I have been playing with a "safe approach" to gobbing up S.Korea as US. Basicly its put 1 inf into Taiwan - then on a later round, control taiwan and S.Korea at once. However, i see this as problematic as controlling taiwan is in most games not worth it and ops wise those preciouse 3 ops are urgently needed elsewhere in the early game. Also wont work if USSR goes ahead and dumps influence in S.Korea.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2013, 06:16:23 am by darune »
Logged

BamBix

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 37
  • Wargameroom username: BamBix_TS
  • Respect: +11
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2013, 04:14:22 am »
+1

Well, Taiwan can be worth it, but you have to base your play around it (I.e. no playing of the china card). I've had a game where Formosan resolution gave me 2 times Asia domination due to the 3-3 split in the battlegrounds.
Logged

Chimista

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 109
  • Wargameroom username: chimista
  • Respect: +18
    • View Profile
Re: South Korea
« Reply #14 on: January 28, 2013, 06:47:51 am »
0

Well, Taiwan can be worth it, but you have to base your play around it (I.e. no playing of the china card). I've had a game where Formosan resolution gave me 2 times Asia domination due to the 3-3 split in the battlegrounds.

It's an interesting approach, never did it myself, but can well be worth it. Keeping the China Card you deny the Russian the chance to hold two bad cards, the opportunity to flip Taiwan or Pakistan, and it's a life insurance in case you get a really bad hand.

It would take a lot of discipline for me though, since I use the China Card as much as I can! :D

Would be interesting to hear the views of more experienced players
« Last Edit: January 28, 2013, 06:50:03 am by Chimista »
Logged
Pages: [1]
 

Page created in 0.114 seconds with 20 queries.