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Author Topic: Turn 1 Headline Rankings  (Read 7947 times)

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theory

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Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« on: February 04, 2013, 02:30:58 pm »
+2

If this goes well, I'll probably turn it into a frontpage article.

Let's try to rank our Turn 1 headlines as each side.  Obviously, headlines depend a lot on board position and the rest of your hand.  But let us assume a standard setup, and a typical Early War hand, without worrying about unusual situations (like Containment in a hand with nothing but 4 Ops and scoring cards).

As US:

Strong

Containment*
Red Scare/Purge
Defectors
Marshall Plan*
Captured Nazi Scientist*
Middle East Scoring

Acceptable

Asia Scoring
Europe Scoring
CIA Created*
Five Year Plan
Olympic Games

Mediocre

Special Relationship
East European Unrest
The Cambridge Five
Formosan Resolution*
Fidel*
Romanian Abdication*
Blockade*
US/Japan Mutual Defense Pact*
Duck and Cover
NORAD*
Independent Reds*

Awful

Truman Doctrine*
Nuclear Test Ban
Indo-Pakistani War
NATO*
[All other USSR events]

And for USSR:

Strong

Red Scare/Purge
Suez Crisis*
Vietnam Revolts*
Arab-Israeli War
Socialist Governments

Good

The Cambridge Five
Nasser*
Captured Nazi Scientist*
Europe Scoring
Asia Scoring
Middle East Scoring
Korean War*
Blockade*

Mediocre

Olympic Games
De Gaulle Leads France*
Romanian Abdication*
Truman Doctrine*
Defectors
Comecon*
Independent Reds*
Formosan Resolution*
Fidel*
CIA Created*

Bad

De-Stalinization*
Decolonization
Special Relationship
Indo-Pakistani War
Warsaw Pact Formed*
Nuclear Test Ban
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SnowFire

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Re: Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2013, 04:14:08 pm »
+1

Decent list.  Pretty much entirely agree on the "Strong" options, as well as the cards listed as "Awful".  As for the others, bolding notable disagreements:

Acceptable

Blockade* - I love getting this out of the way on turn 1 with an empty WG.
Asia Scoring
Europe Scoring
CIA Created*
Olympic Games
East European Unrest - It's a fairish trade of 3 ops for 3 influence.
NORAD* - A super long-term play, but the Mediocre cards are bad enough this still is better.

Mediocre
Romanian Abdication*
Fidel* - Gets it out of the way at least.
Special Relationship - throws away 1 op.
US/Japan Mutual Defense Pact* - throws away 1 op and a good coup, possibly more long term if the USSR would have given you Japan for free.
Formosan Resolution* - throws away 2 ops.
The Cambridge Five - throws away 2 ops.
Duck and Cover - throws away 3 ops, but you get 1 VP!

Awful
Five Year Plan - The whole point of 5YP is to threaten DEFCON suicide, but at DEFCON 5 that isn't happening.  Save the 3 ops.
Independent Reds* - Against a standard Soviet setup at least.  (Sure, headline it vs. 3 EG / 3 POL / 3 YUG I guess.)
(the rest as given.)

--

For the USSR, Strong & Awful are still unchanged:

Good
Nasser*
Captured Nazi Scientist*
Europe Scoring
Asia Scoring
Middle East Scoring
Fidel* - You do want to eventually trigger Fidel anyway...  yes turning on CIA Created is a shame, but that is likely to happen anyway, doing an event you care about is better than fishing for VP with Olympic Games or the like.

Mediocre
Olympic Games
Korean War* - the THREAT of Korean War is better than the play of it.  You'll have plenty of Mil Ops anyway on turn 1.
Blockade* - Hold it or wait for AR6.
De Gaulle Leads France* - Much better vs. 3 FRA openings of course.
Romanian Abdication*
Truman Doctrine*
The Cambridge Five - Very likely to be a miss on turn 1 even with no scoring cards in your hand, since the US often headlines any scoring cards they have.  Much more tempting on turn 2 HL if 2-3 scoring cards are unaccounted for.
Defectors
Comecon*
Independent Reds*
Formosan Resolution*
CIA Created*
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MarlesChartel

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Re: Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2013, 05:48:10 pm »
+1

One easy way to sanity-check of headlining opponent's events is asking how much they want to headline it. Cambridge Five, Arab-Israeli War, and Suez Crisis are good USSR headlines. Therefore, they are awful US headlines.

For US:
Fantastic
1. Middle East Scoring (IMO, much better than anything else). It's a 4 VP swing.

Strong (decent positive):
2. Red Scare/Purge
3. Containment
4. Defectors
5. Marshall Plan (better if you use non-standard 3 West Germany, 2 France, 2 Italy)

Good (slightly positive):
6. Captured Nazi Scientist (2 VP-1 OP is significantly worse than the others in the Strong tier)
7. Asia Scoring
8. CIA Created (underrated as a first move into afghanistan)

Acceptable (almost neutral):
9.Olympic Games
10. Europe Scoring (US usually scores this, but headlining it allows the US to fight elsewhere)
11. Romanian Abdication (only worse than Olympic Games because it gives a non-battleground for Europe Scoring and it gives De-stal influence)
12. Special Relationship (not actually that bad, approximately -1 OP from event instead of ops)

Mediocre (slightly negative):
13. Five Year Plan (3 OPS is above average. This is likely to force a discard of a card worse than 3 OPS. Hand size matters less for Turn 1 USSR because they have the China Card and no Blockade to worry about).
14. NORAD
15. US/Japan Mutual Defense Pact* (-1 OP, but gets you a slight bit of initiative in placing Asia ops)
16. East European Unrest

Bad:
17. Duck and Cover (1 VP for 3 OPS? ick. At least the DEFCON lowering works in the US's favor, generally).
18. Formosan Resolution (-2 OPS)
19. Independent Reds (-2 OPS, getting rid of what is occasionally a decent event)
20. Fidel (-2 OPS. I prefer to play this my first chance at DEFCON 2, before the USSR can safely dump CIA created).
21. Cambridge Five (You're revealing that you have no scoring cards, at -2 OPS)
22. Indo-Pakistani War (It's 1 VP-2 OPS, but it is a fantastic event to try to flip India or Pakistan with).

Awful:
Blockade (The risk of getting RSP'd is too much).
Truman Doctrine*
Nuclear Test Ban
NATO*
All other USSR events
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Cal

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Re: Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2013, 08:33:30 pm »
0

1. Middle East Scoring (IMO, much better than anything else). It's a 4 VP swing.
Are you going with the assumption that the US gets +1 influence and puts it in Iran?
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MarlesChartel

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Re: Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2013, 09:29:55 pm »
0

Yes.
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Jack Rudd

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Re: Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2013, 11:13:07 pm »
0

Well, yes, if you change the starting assumptions, the value of the headlines also changes.
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Cal

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Re: Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2013, 11:21:05 pm »
0

That is why I don't like the +1 influence bidding thing for the US.

Some notes I wish to make:

1. Asia Scoring for the US, unless it's holding Vietnam Revolts, is a very dangerous headline. If the USSR headlines Vietnam Revolts, it gets a cheap and quick domination worth 5VP and the US shoots itself in the foot.
2. Five Year Plan is a great headline for the US if it has the potential to hit a 3-4op US event. The best result is to steal and activate Marshall Plan from the USSR's hand.
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MarlesChartel

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Re: Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2013, 03:43:44 am »
0

1. If the USSR headlines Vietnam Revolts, they are probably going to get Asia domination anyway
2. Average ops value in the early war is less than 3 ops. FYP usually isn't that great for stealing ops and activating good events.
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sael

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Re: Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2013, 04:23:28 am »
0

Mostly agree. Nicely done.

For US, CIA Created* can be more than 'Acceptable'. Placing 1 influence in Afghanistan before USSR's first move guarantees the access to Asia. Seeing USSR's hand may occasionally help US to prevent from a Turn 5 instant lose.

For USSR, Mid-East Scoring may not be that 'Good' if the starting setup is +1 US...

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Cal

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Re: Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2013, 05:04:10 am »
0

1. If the USSR headlines Vietnam Revolts, they are probably going to get Asia domination anyway
Not true. Unless the USSR does its opening coup with Duck and Cover (or the US headlined Duck and Cover), the US will get an opportunity to coup Vietnam with the defcon at 4. It's a coup that I feel the US has good incentive to make: it costs only 2ops to have a coup that will definitely change influence. Best case scenario it will give the US SE Asia and shut down the power of the card the entire turn. Worst case scenario: the USSR still has to waste an AR and a card couping Vietnam back.
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Jack Rudd

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Re: Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2013, 11:23:27 am »
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1. If the USSR headlines Vietnam Revolts, they are probably going to get Asia domination anyway
Not true. Unless the USSR does its opening coup with Duck and Cover (or the US headlined Duck and Cover), the US will get an opportunity to coup Vietnam with the defcon at 4. It's a coup that I feel the US has good incentive to make: it costs only 2ops to have a coup that will definitely change influence. Best case scenario it will give the US SE Asia and shut down the power of the card the entire turn. Worst case scenario: the USSR still has to waste an AR and a card couping Vietnam back.
Thing is, that back-and-forth favours the USSR: the Vietnam Revolts card gives the USSR +1 to Coups in SE Asia that turn.
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theory

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Re: Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2013, 05:08:07 pm »
0

The real US goal is to just knock the USSR out and leave them at 0 influence. 
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MarlesChartel

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Re: Turn 1 Headline Rankings
« Reply #12 on: February 05, 2013, 09:24:26 pm »
0

If there's no influence adjustment, Middle east scoring should be right above Asia scoring, in my "good" tier.
The US shouldn't worry too much about a Vietnam Revolts or Nasser headline on Turn 1.
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