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Author Topic: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)  (Read 11184 times)

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pietshaq

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Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« on: July 01, 2013, 04:34:25 pm »
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Hi!

What's the fastest possible victory in theory, separately for USSR and US? I mean: what's the theoretical scenario leading for the victory? The speed is measured in Turns and Action Half-Rounds. Assume players may make any mistakes except from losing to DEFCON unless forced and holding Scoring Cards (except Kennedy which is irrelevant since I've seen USSR winning in Early War so it's impossible that USSR's fastest win meets Kennedy).
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theory

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2013, 05:46:58 pm »
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The USSR can win on US T1 AR1:

USSR setup: 3 into Poland + somewhere else
US setup: put it all into Canada

US headline: De-Stalinization
* USSR moves 4 influence: 2 into France, 2 into Italy

USSR headline: Olympic Games
* US boycotts, USSR places 4 Ops into WGer

USSR T1: place 1 influence into France
US T1: Score Europe Control for USSR
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blitzgordon

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2013, 07:43:15 pm »
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US win on T1 USSR AR1:
US Headline: Olympic Games, USSR boycotts. DEFCON 4. USSR Headline: CIA created, US Coups BG. DEFCON 3
USSR plays Duck & Cover for ops, DEFCON 2, coups Panama/South Africa: Ka-Boom.
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theory

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2013, 08:56:08 pm »
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I think the OP wanted non-DEFCON wins, though it is amusing that the US could win before it takes an AR.
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blitzgordon

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2013, 02:51:12 am »
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I think the OP wanted non-DEFCON wins, though it is amusing that the US could win before it takes an AR.
Oh, I was reading late last night and I missed that. But ok.

So, earliest win for US then?
No inf in EG for USSR, Poland Truman-d out, Polish and French takeover. USSR HLs East European Unrest, US Olympic games - places four inf (three france, one EG). USSR plays Truman. has to place 7 5 more inf (two EG, three POL) and scoring must be played.
Where are we then? USSR AR3?
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Kazzy

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2013, 03:35:20 am »
+1

USSR adds 1 to every non-battle ground Eastern European Country on start-up.
USA adds 4 to WG, 2 to Italy, 1 to France
USSR headlines East European Unrest - 1 from poland, 2 from elsewhere
USA headlines Olympic Games - adds 3 to EG, 1 to France

Turn 1:
USSR plays Truman Doctrine, Adds to N Korea, - USA takes from Poland
USA plays Nuclear Test Ban - adds 3 to Poland and 1 to France

Turn 2:
USSR plays Europe Scoring - USA wins with control?

The next question is what's the quickest way to win with points and no Euro auto-victory?


« Last Edit: July 02, 2013, 03:37:53 am by Kazzy »
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blitzgordon

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2013, 04:43:38 am »
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Funny that my opening setup as US is so fixed that I never even reflected over the fact that you could start with WG 4 IT 2 FR 1...
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Kazzy

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2013, 06:30:19 am »
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I think USSR could win by the end of Turn 1 by getting to 20 points.

Needs 3 extra IP in Middle East to get domination (or Nasser), needs to win Korean War for points and influence, (played by USA) and use the china card to add to Afghanistan and South Korea.

Then USSR also needs to make a strong coup, win the Arab Israeli War (for more points) and get domination in Europe - think it's doable in 1 turn.
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Eruantalon

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2013, 07:28:28 am »
+2

Setup:
USSR In European non-bg not enough to control any of them
USA 4 WG 2 ITA 1 FR
USA Headlines Olympics, USSR Europe Scoring
USA puts 1 in EG, 2 In FRA - + 10 VP

USSR AR 1 USSR Plays ME Scoring + 4 VP
USA AR 1 4OPS to put in North Korea and Pakistan/South Korea
USSR AR2 Asia Scoring + 8 VP =22VP, USA Wins
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gringohairpiece

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2013, 08:55:46 am »
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So we are talking situations where the USSR deliberately sets up to lose???? While the OP said to assume mistakes could be made I would suggest that what has been put forward so far is less a mistake and more a suicide letter :D
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Kazzy

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2013, 09:17:57 am »
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It's like fools mate in chess isn't it?

White has to basically play to lose in 2 moves.

We could assume any mistakes including them not setting up the board wisely
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Kazzy

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2013, 09:19:37 am »
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Setup:
USSR In European non-bg not enough to control any of them
USA 4 WG 2 ITA 1 FR
USA Headlines Olympics, USSR Europe Scoring
USA puts 1 in EG, 2 In FRA - + 10 VP

USSR AR 1 USSR Plays ME Scoring + 4 VP
USA AR 1 4OPS to put in North Korea and Pakistan/South Korea
USSR AR2 Asia Scoring + 8 VP =22VP, USA Wins

Are we assuming +1 influence for Iran then? If not then it'll need another go.

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theory

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2013, 09:39:03 am »
+1

So we are talking situations where the USSR deliberately sets up to lose???? While the OP said to assume mistakes could be made I would suggest that what has been put forward so far is less a mistake and more a suicide letter :D

The whole point of the puzzle is the fastest theoretical victory, not the fastest victory with optimal play from both sides.
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Kazzy

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2013, 11:00:50 am »
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USSR quickest victory:

USA puts all influence into UK
USSR: 3 into EG, 2 into Yugoslavia, 1 in Hungary and

USSR headlines Vietnam Revolts
USA headlines Asia Scoring - +8 USSR

USSR plays Warsaw pact takes yugoslavia and hungary
USA plays Europe Scoring + 9 (17 poinst overall)

USSR places influence to take Iraq and Syria
USA plays ME scoring +6 (23 points I believe)
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sspiker

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2013, 11:11:23 am »
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In that scenario, the USSR would score +5 for Asia domination and +6 for Europe domination, so that only gets you to 17 VPs.

Also, I assume you meant Poland and not EG, as the USSR starts with 3 in EG.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2013, 11:13:17 am by sspiker »
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sspiker

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2013, 12:34:58 pm »
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My solution:

Set-up:
US: 2 into Norway, 4 into Finland, 1 into Sweden, +1/+2 into Sweden
USA: 3 Poland, 3 Yugoslavia

Headline:
USSR: Olympics (Boycotted, place 4 influence - +2 Iraq, +1 Syria, +1 Italy)
USA: Mid East Scoring (+6 VP)

AR 1:
USSR: Destal (remove four from Iraq and Syria, +1 Vietnam, +1 Italy, +2 France)
USA: Asia Scoring (+5 VP)

AR 2:
USSR: 3 Ops (+1 France, +1 UK)
USA: Europe Scoring (+11 VP)

USSR wins with 22 VPs
« Last Edit: July 02, 2013, 01:14:08 pm by sspiker »
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sspiker

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2013, 01:11:32 pm »
+2

Some games have a +3 IP bid for the US, which can be won by the US at the end of AR1:

Setup:
US: 4 WGer, 2 ITAL, 1 FR, +2 SKor, +1 FR
USSR: 2 Yugoslavia, 2 Finland, 2 Austria

HL:
USSR: Destal (-3 NKor, -1 EGer, place in Mid-War region)
USA: Olympics (Boycott, +3 NKor, +1 FR)

AR1:
USSR: Asia Scoring (+10 VP)
USA: Europe Scoring (+10 VP)
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Kazzy

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #17 on: July 03, 2013, 03:56:22 am »
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Once you get to +3 bids this exercise becomes silly.

Got to stick to standard set up I believe
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Eruantalon

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #18 on: July 03, 2013, 05:18:59 am »
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Well, setup with at least +1 IP is standard already, thus the "textbook" setup for this looks more like disconnected from  reality. BAring that, tries of every setup are nice mind exercise ; )
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pietshaq

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #19 on: July 03, 2013, 03:19:37 pm »
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Well, setup with at least +1 IP is standard already, thus the "textbook" setup for this looks more like disconnected from  reality. BAring that, tries of every setup are nice mind exercise ; )

I'd rather call the textbook setup "imbalanced". What do you exactly mean by "reality"?  ;D
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Eruantalon

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #20 on: July 04, 2013, 02:15:18 am »
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I've actually meant "practice" - the way the game's played.
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Riku Riekkinen

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #21 on: July 08, 2013, 12:41:55 am »
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Setup:
USSR In European non-bg not enough to control any of them
USA 4 WG 2 ITA 1 FR
USA Headlines Olympics, USSR Europe Scoring
USA puts 1 in EG, 1 In Iran, 1 in Lebanon - + 9 VP

USSR AR 1 USSR Plays ME Scoring + 6 VP
USA AR 1 4OPS to put in North Korea and Pakistan/South Korea
USSR AR2 Asia Scoring + 8 VP =23VP, USA Wins

-----

My solution:

Set-up:
US: 3 into Norway, 3 into Finland, 1 into Sweden, +1/+2 into Sweden
USSR: 3 Poland, 3 Yugoslavia

Headline:
USSR: Destal (remove 1 Finland, 3 North Korea ; Put +2 Iraq, +1 Lebanon, +1 Malaysia)
USA: ME scoring (-6 VP)

AR 1:
USSR: China (+1 Australia, +2 Thailand, +1Malysia)
USA: Asia Scoring (-8 VP)

AR 2:
USSR: Europe Scoring (-6 VP)
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lambolt

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #22 on: November 13, 2014, 06:54:58 am »
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I would be interested to see what the fastest possible victory was not including mistakes, i.e. only accounting for bad luck in die rolls and/or hand draws.
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pietshaq

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #23 on: November 13, 2014, 09:44:33 am »
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I would be interested to see what the fastest possible victory was not including mistakes, i.e. only accounting for bad luck in die rolls and/or hand draws.

Too dubious how to tell mistake apart from non-mistake when you already know the results of rolling or cards for the next turn.
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lambolt

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2014, 12:01:35 pm »
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Just assume the worst die rolls and combination of card draws for a particular side, but then work out a way to play the cards and influence so that one side cannot stop the defeat. I'm guessing it would be difficult because it would go several turns?
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pietshaq

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #25 on: November 14, 2014, 02:52:27 am »
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One of us does not get the problem.
I mean that one can win by making moves which are not considered good but turn out to be good under certain circumstances. For example, USSR goes for Ops War and Europe Control after successful realignment rolls from West Germany and Italy on AR1. This is a play no good player would recommend but with enormous rolls it may lead to unstoppable Europe Control even on Turn 1 and even with the best counterplay. On the other side, the theory of gaming does not allow calling these moves 'mistakes' because they do not change the outcome of the game to the detriment of the player who plays the moves.
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lambolt

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #26 on: November 17, 2014, 05:51:51 pm »
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yeah I get that, which is why the solution would have to be an iterative process whereby someone would suggest a hand of cards each player got, and also specify cards drawn in subsequent rounds, then they'd outline a plan, and it would be up to others to say "yes but...." to show a counter, but with all die rolls assumed to favour the possible solution.
Of course this would not be easy, and probably impossible to "prove" what is the fastest, but I don't see how as a thought experiment you couldn't come up with a worst case/best case scenario for starting hands and provide a suggestion for how those would be played and see if it could be refuted.

As a start, maybe someone could nominate what might be a particularly lop sided set of starting hands, I guess biased in the USSR favour since they are most likely to dominate early on. What would be the nastiest USSR start hand, and coupled with the most horrific USA start hand. How would that hand be played out by experienced players. Then repeat for the second turn, assuming a particularly lopsided distribution of cards and suggest how that would be played by expert players. Now again with the 3rd turn, assuming a reshuffle that puts all the USSR events or something in both hands. All the best US early war cards don't get drawn by either player.

I think it would be fun to hear suggestions on how such a game might proceed.
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pietshaq

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #27 on: November 18, 2014, 02:43:30 am »
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Still may get to nowhere. For example, USA starting hand with 3 scorings, Blockade, Fidel, Nasser, Decolonization, and De-Stalinization is pretty awful, especially when USSR headlines RS/P, but this not necessarily helps USSR win ASAP. Decol can hurt immediately if it decides about Asia but Fidel will hurt since the Mid War and early De-Stal usually helps US survive the Early War because it transfers USSR's influence from the Early War regions to the Mid War regions. The all-over cost of this play is huge (too huge) and this is why this hand is horrible but it won't probably make the USSR victory very fast. Three scorings are just as awful as the other cards but in this case they help US get rid of them pretty cheaply (with ME Scoring at certain +4VPs if you play with +2) which comes at further costs.
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lambolt

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #28 on: November 18, 2014, 03:08:50 pm »
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Of course this would probably be impossible to do but you're still talking about "not necessarily" and being vague, the point would be YOU could specify the best possible start hand for the USSR as an idea, and the worst possible opponent USA hand. YOU would say OK I would headline this, and then you would say the best response would be this, and so on and so forth, now make all the rolls the worst for the USA, and repeat for a turn or 2, and see if you can show a reasonable set of plays that would in any case result in an impossible position, either by DEFCOn trap or VPs. Its not about saying "this or that hand isnt necessarily bad", its you specifying ALL THE CARDS in both hands, and suggesting the optimal play of those cards for BOTH sides, and then continuining until you get to a point where you can show that after X turns/rounds, even with perfect play, this set of cards would lead to a USSR win, etc etc.

Its almost certainly not possible to provide any definite answer, but when I said it "would be fun" to hear, I meant, since the solutions earlier in the thread were all about theoretically possible but including silly plays that no one would ever make, it would be fun if someone could come up with a set of turns that didnt seem unreasonable that led to victory in the shortest time, and after that, it would be up to someone else to say "yeah, but the USA could have played that card here instead and this would have changed that and thus the game would not have ended here"

Its not a difficult concept to grasp, but I agree it would be very difficult to do. It was more of a "for the hell of it" type idea for someone who knew the game well to suggest.
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pietshaq

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #29 on: November 19, 2014, 02:56:04 am »
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Well, if we talk about moves players actually would make, the word 'theoretically' stops making sense and we can just share experiences from real games.
I remember winning on T2AR4 as USSR by Europe Control. It was a serious game during the Polish TS Championships. My opponent risked an empty West Germany setup but did not pay enough attention to overprotect Italy. This, combined with a couple of good rolls, was enough.
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lambolt

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #30 on: November 19, 2014, 04:19:46 am »
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Wow that must have been pretty exhilarating! Hard to imagine winning any quicker than that in that way, congrats!
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pietshaq

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Re: Fastest possible victory (theoretically)
« Reply #31 on: November 19, 2014, 06:46:11 am »
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I'd say it was but ask my opponent and you'll hear a different word  ;)
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