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Author Topic: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran  (Read 16882 times)

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pietshaq

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USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« on: July 18, 2013, 06:11:56 am »
0

Hi!

This question I've already seen before but I've just had something in mind.
When USSR wants to coup a 3IPs Iran with a 4Ops card it has 1/3 chance for "success" (either 0/0 or 0/3) because any other roll leaves Iran with US influence or vulnerable for strong counter-coup. This is why I am curious if realigning Iran wouldn't be a better option. According to Realignment Probability Chart you have 38,9% success of knocking US entirely with a 4Ops card and what you really need as USSR is not Iran but denying US access to Western Asia. Even if you don't succeed, you will probably eliminate at least 2 US IPs from Iran, and US faces dilemma what to do since DEFCON is at 5 and securing Europe may as well knock them from Asia. Of course he may still secure Europe which is almost equivalent to use an extra setup influence in Europe, yet slightly better as
  • the influence does not have to be placed in a country US already has influence in, and
  • Soviet streamroll is one Action Round slower
but he will probably contest Asia. Plus the USSR's odds aren't impressive but once in a hundred games they may realign USA from Italy and even West Germany as well if first roll against Iran proves to be extremely lucky.

What do you think of realigning Iran instead of couping it if US has 3IPs there at start?

Regards
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BData

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2013, 10:50:13 am »
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Well, this is one interesting possibility. You indeed have 38.9% chance of removing all the USA IPs (and get a shot elsewhere if you remove them with fewer than 4 rolls). But you also have a 27.2% chance of not removing any USA IP after 4 rolls. This is a quite large probability and would be disastrous. So itís quite a gamble.
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BData

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2013, 11:25:04 am »
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To complement my last post and give a more complete picture, here is a comparison of the two strategies (coup vs realignment, both with a 4 Ops card).

Number of IPís left in Iran after the coup:
USSR  USA   Probability
0         2        16.66%
0         1        16.66%
0         0        16.66%
1         0        16.66%
2         0        16.66%
3         0        16.66%

Number of IPís left in Iran after the realignments:
USSR   USA   Probability
0          3        27.2%
0          2        17.8%
0          1        16.1%
0          0        38.9%
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DC-Chaos

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2013, 11:35:36 am »
+1

Isn't it much more worthwhile taking Afghanistan first to deny it to the US, increase the realignment modifier and give access to Pakistan. Taking Iraq also helps hugely for your realign to succeed as well as battle for the Middle East. I'm not sure why you think you have to realign immediately on AR1 with such a high chance of wasting a lot of ops when you can spend them to take over crucial countries first that may end up making the play more effective later.
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sspiker

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2013, 10:19:27 am »
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So AR1, take Afghanistan and Iraq, then AR2 re-align Iran at a +1?
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SnowFire

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2013, 10:12:20 pm »
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Taking both Afghanistan & Iraq requires a 4 ops.  Just coup Iran then w/ your 4 ops, the payoff is far better.  And don't expect to keep that +1: any competent American player will respond with 2 into Pakistan (and +1 into Iran if there was no handicap).  USSR player probably needs to coup Pakistan then (possibly w/ China card?), but even if it succeeds, it just seems far riskier - US can still counter-coup, and if that wins, the USSR better have Indo-Pak + win on it, or else Asia is going to be mighty blue.  And even if the USSR wins hugely, US can do something like drop a single influence in Pakistan (paying double if need be) to threaten India & have a way back into Iran.
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gringohairpiece

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2013, 09:46:42 am »
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Hi Snowfire,

I understand what you are saying but the whole point of this thread was with 3 inf in Iran as the "norm" couping Iran as the first move for the USSR is no longer the optimum move as the potential to "fail" has increased significantly. So the idea was to discuss what the alternatives are. You've just come back with coup Iran if you have a 4 op card. What about if you don't? Even with a 4 op the chances of success are significantly reduced.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2013, 09:48:30 am by gringohairpiece »
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budzo

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2013, 11:07:26 am »
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Well i dont wanna be misunderstood but does +2 Iran is not too much for a buff? It gives US player much more chance of taking Pakistan and India and of course Thailand is usa unless Decol/Destal or Vietnam is played fast. I always play without additional points but I think 1 is enough.
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SnowFire

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2013, 06:06:10 pm »
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Sorry, I'm blind and didn't notice the topic title!

Well, sure, if you have a really strong hand, go for it.  US will still respond the same way by going into Pakistan, though.  If I only had a single 4 ops, I'd definitely just stick 2 into Afghanistan and bide my time for a better coup target.  (or make some kind of Europe play)
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MarlesChartel

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2013, 09:23:16 pm »
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If the cards aren't right for a Europe play, I still think couping Iran is the best move.
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Kazzy

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2013, 03:43:03 am »
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If you play +3 then I wouldn't coup Iran.
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pietshaq

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2013, 04:33:38 am »
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I think +2 for Iran may be much. However, I have played six games with this setup so far and the total result is 5:1 for the USSR (including my yesterday league game in which I started with a quite poor hand as USSR, if I remember well it was Nasser, Captured Nazi Scientists, Comecon, Indo-Pakistani War, Special Relationships, Independent Reds, Five Year Plan, and Blockade -- 15 Ops + China Card is not a tragedy but I had no really tempting moves except from China Card Iran coup; I even thought about the Comecon Trap but finally I decided to go for European Mediterranean countries without a coups and without using China Card, although I eventually used it to coup Italy).
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DC-Chaos

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2013, 08:18:28 am »
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I agree that +2 inf for US is too much but it doesn't seem to affect the outcome of my games too much. All it does is make the first turn a lot trickier for the USSR and I guess this makes the game a bit more interesting. Seeing Iran getting couped every single game is a bit boring.

I personally think taking Afghanistan on AR1 works well for me for lots of reasons. It's important to not let the US take it, it helps realign Iran, it secures early domination for Asia (1 BG + 1 nonBG) and gives access to Pakistan. I also like to use 3 or 4 ops so I can also make some plays into other areas and keep the pressure on the Americans. Taking Iraq as mentioned can work well. If the US plays into Pakistan as someone mentioned I think the USSR will be happy to coup there with the China Card so I don't see this as a great riposte and you shouldn't be too worried about it. Having Pakistan yourself means the later Iran realign will be irresistible. This can depend on your hand of course. If I hold Destal then I would love to coup with the China Card as I don't need to worry about the US keeping it and if I roll well I should have lots of spare influence to use for the Destal spread around. If I have decol then I have another way into Asia so it may alter my tactics. If I have neither De-cards then giving up the China Card is risky as I may not see them until turn 7 or later. Indo-Paki war is always a concern whether I hold it or not.

Conversely as the US if I have a lot of OPS and Indo-Paki war in my hand I have tried putting 4 ops into Pakistan with some good success. It makes couping it much harder and my 3-4 op counter coup almost unbeatable (they need to beat my roll by around 3 or more to keep me out). With DEFCON at 3, the China Card in hand and control of Pakistan, Asia should turn blue in no time. I'm not too worried about the USSR Decol-ing in as I can't do anything to stop it and any influence not being put into Africa with it is cool with me.
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gringohairpiece

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2013, 09:54:22 am »
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If you play +3 then I wouldn't coup Iran.

Hi, just to confirm we are not playing +3 in Iran. It is +2 which makes a total of three. My friend and i have played quite a few games without buffing and found that the US won rarely. I suspect that some of this is down to USSR being easier to play as a beginner\middling player. Nonetheless, it doesn't make for much fun starting a game that you know will be 70% likely to end in defeat if you aren't the USSR so we adopted the proposed Wargameroom buff of +2 about 6 or 7 matches ago.

So far we have found that the stats, albeit on a smallish sample, are definitely heading in the right direction. Again, this could be because we are getting better at playing the US but as pointed out above +2 makes the game a lot more interesting challenge for the USSR rather than the standard coup Iran opening.
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Kazzy

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2013, 09:58:29 am »
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I don't I was clear - of course we are talking about +2 to Iran - to make it 3 in total.

I think part of the challenge of the game is for USA to survive the USSR early war onslaught. USA gets stronger as the game goes on so I think weakening the USSR opening moves makes it more unfair for the USSR overall.
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SnowFire

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2013, 04:02:43 pm »
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"Just coup Pakistan" is not a panacea.  It's the Soviet's best play in that situation, but it doesn't solve everything.  Assuming both players have averageish hands:

AR1 USSR: 2 to Afghanistan.  (If overflowing with 4 ops cards, sure, 2 to Afg + 2 to Iraq)
USA: 2 to Pakistan (if the US has ops to spare, 3 to Pakistan!)
AR2 USSR: Coup, possibly with the China Card.  (Best case, China vs. 2 inf, means a 1 empties Pakistan.)  Based on the remaining influence in Pakistan:
1+/0: US drops an influence in India, reinforces Pakistan, and is sitting pretty.
0/0: US chuckles, retakes Pakistan.
0/1-3: US counter-coups Pakistan with its highest ops card, gets milops.  If this coup succeeds, no more coups in Asia, so the US keeps the spoils.  A very common case.
0/4+: (or if it was 0/3 and the US didn't have a 4 ops) Spend a 3 ops.  1 influence to Pakistan, 1 influence to Iraq.  If Iraq was fortified to 0/3, consider 1 to Pakistan, 1 to Jordan.

Even in the best case for the Soviets, the US gets to put the USSR on its backfoot and threaten a bunch of places at once and spread its tentacles through Asia & the Middle East in a way that they can't usually.  The US getting the final coup on Pakistan is potentially devastating - if the US gets even a single influence in Pakistan, it can easily collect India & win the SE Asia race from both directions, short of Indo-Pak war of course.

Which is not to say that the Soviets shouldn't try, but it's part of the reason why +2 influence is so huge, because it makes it so much harder to lock the US out of the region entirely based off of a strong Iran coup.
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budzo

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2013, 04:44:01 pm »
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I think +1 Iran to make it 2 is the best solution. With 1 US inf in Iran not couping it is always considered as a "weird" play, unless u can make a combo like a soc govs + duck and cover or 4 op coup Italy.

Making it 2 adds a bit of gamble... with 4op card u can  completely fail after rolling 1 but this is still pretty good chance of getting 3-4 inf. It can make USSR think about other options like for example taking s korea or couping Italy or doing some ME play. I this is the case when u have to think more about ur cards and consider the best strategy and game has different variants.

If Iran is at 3 couping it even with 4op is problematic: 33% chance of leaving us influence and only 17% chance of emptying Iran wchich in that case is the best result.

It makes Asia domination for US more than possible, and besides a lot of USSR options to play in Europe its still a little easier for US to dominate it leaves USSR with ME and make it horribly depended of decol and destal to take se asia, africa or s am.
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discomute

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2013, 04:33:40 am »
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I know I haven't played TS as much as everyone, but I really don't understand why anyone would play with the rules. 1 in Iran is fine IMO
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gringohairpiece

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2013, 06:23:35 am »
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I know I haven't played TS as much as everyone, but I really don't understand why anyone would play with the rules. 1 in Iran is fine IMO

In the experience of myself and my friend we have found that over the course of 30+ games the Soviets were winning 80+% of the time. Now perhaps we were just much better at playing the Soviets but even so it doesn't make for much fun when playing as the US that you have at best a 1 in 4 chance of winning.

Since adopting +2 (inline with Wargameroom) that is now sitting at 60% and is coming which is a lot healthier.

As we get better at playing the US that may well mean we roll back to +1 but at the moment +2 is working for us.

It's also fun playing the USSR again as we are now trying to come up with strategies to deal with the new position rather than just couping Iran as a default action.
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discomute

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2013, 07:25:21 am »
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Fair enough.

I assume this +2 is with optional cards included?
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Kazzy

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2013, 08:44:33 am »
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Maybe there should be +2 to USA but -1 starting influence in Europe to create more USA vulnerabilities.
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discomute

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2013, 09:11:55 am »
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Or USSR starting with Syria or Lebanon. I just don't like the idea of USA headlining Middle East scoring and getting 4VPs like that.
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pietshaq

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2013, 01:25:37 pm »
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You may as well don't like USSR gaining 6VPs "like that", I mean like:
  • opening 3POL/3YUG
  • headlining SocGov
  • AR1-ing Europe Scoring

against which US may or may not have any counterplay. At least those 4VPs make USSR's start a little more fair (maybe they'll headline Nasser in T1 to prevent it?)
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discomute

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2013, 06:22:08 pm »
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Well true, a very good card to pull off, plus allows USA an extra coup and USSR one less in terms of DEFCON restrictions. It is still good, but not in the same league.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2013, 01:24:51 am by discomute »
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budzo

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Re: USSR T1AR1 against US 3IP in Iran
« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2013, 01:50:59 pm »
+1

I personally always play with no additional influence and experience USSR having "a bit" of advantage wchich does not mean they are winning 80% of games not even 60%. I 2 players are experienced the chances are very even.

If I would play +2 iran i would certainly give ussr +1 syria. Like discomute says this soc govs move is not like just headlining me and earn 4vps. U can be countered by defectors and u lose ur opening coup.

With +2 iran asia is most likely USA. With +0 in my exprience it is very often divided with no domination at least in early war, it is very easy to prevent ussr domination by taking cheap se asian countries.
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