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Author Topic: Asia blitz opening for USA  (Read 3675 times)

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BData

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Asia blitz opening for USA
« on: January 31, 2014, 10:51:47 am »
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Iíd like to hear your thoughts about this. Standard TS league setup with 2 bonus IPs for USA. Suppose USA has US/Japan and Asia scoring. USA puts the 2 bonus IPs in South Korea and headlines US/Japan. The goal is to play/threat Asia scoring in AR1 for a quick 5 VPs. Is it a good trade-off to leave Iran vulnerable to an AR1 coup?

From the USSR point of view, is it better to take the 5 VPs hit and coup Iran or should they fight to avoid Asia domination?  In the latter case, itís not necessarily easy. If USSR has Decol or De-stal than could put some in Asia to break domination but it would be dangerous to put some in Afrika or the Americas with DEFCON at 5. If USSR has Korean war, they could try it with a 1/3 chance of success. Alternatively, with a 4 Ops card, they could put 1 in SK and 2 in Afghanistan. In that case, USA could take SK back and move into Pakistan (and even put 3 there if they have a 4 Ops card). USSR could then coup Pakistan with the China card.

Any thoughts?
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pietshaq

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Re: Asia blitz opening for USA
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2014, 03:48:52 am »
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A funny idea but not convincing.

USSR may stop it with successful Korean War or De-card in headline (which we can ignore because if you provoke USSR to get rid of De-Stal that early, or put 2 Decol inf into Vietnam and Laos/Kambodia with DEFCON at 5, it's certainly worth it). The Korean War gives only 1/3 chances for flipping scoring from 5VPs to -1VPs, leaving the weighted average at 3VPs.

Even the Cambridge Five headline to South Korea followed by direct SK flipping with China Card in AR1 may destroy your plans with no easy way to get any compensation (and Korean War is still a threat because a successful one leaves you with no chance to get SK back with some combination of NORAD, China Card, Ussuri, etc., and gives USSR a superb IP source to De-Stalinize from).

Additionaly, USSR has numerous ways to stop it during AR1.

The point is, even if USSR does not stop it any way, you effectively lose 6 Ops (2 from bonus and 4 from Ops value of your event associated card) for a single 5 VP scoring. USSR coups Iran, with Suez and Arab-Israeli War (headlined or later) keeping the standard Middle East threats. You probably never repeat the +5 in Asia. You will eventually break even, taking Thailand but giving up Pakistan and India (both Indo-Pak war and Korean War may still matter). However, if you survive Korean War and secure Thailand, you may even make good use of Formosan Resolution.

It's not clear what to do in Europe in this case. I'd probably open 1 SPA, 4 ITA, 1 GRE, and 1 TUR because 1 in Iran leaves ME so vulnerable that I don't want to have no access to the region. This should also make USSR's Europe domination quite easy stoppable in a single move.
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Riku Riekkinen

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Re: Asia blitz opening for USA
« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2014, 09:50:27 am »
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I see being kicked out of ME the greatest danger here. If USSR plays early destal (or at some level decol), reacts AR1 (thus letting you spread from Iran) or especially plays China, it might be good for US.

Well woudn't do it myself because those are pretty expensive countries at the start & increase the risj from Korean war.
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BData

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Re: Asia blitz opening for USA
« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2014, 01:00:27 pm »
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I agree with Wojciech and Riku that there are some risks associated with that strategy. When the USSR see that you put two into SK in the opening, they might suspect something like this is coming and adjust their headline accordingly (by going with decol or de-stal). Then again, it might be a trap set by the USA and they might headline Defectors. So itís not clear. But as Riku said, I see it as a benefit for the USA to tease the USSR into doing something they wouldnít do otherwise (early decol, early de-stal or giving up the China card).

This makes me think that it would be nice if the wargameroon TS program would allow the players more control over the draw of the cards. It would be nice to set up the game as we wish to be able to experiment with some strategies. For example, we could force the program to give US/Japan and Asia scoring to the USA and let the other cards be drawn at random. Maybe I will talk to Bruce about this.
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pietshaq

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Re: Asia blitz opening for USA
« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2014, 03:47:51 am »
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Incidentally, I partially used this strategy yesterday. I have drawn a great T1 hand as US but no headline made sense except Asia Scoring. Therefore I just put extra 2IPs to South Korea and headlined Asia Scoring. I defended myself against possible domination after Vietnam Revolts headline and even in case of successful Korean War headline I risked only 2VPs in a short term (which should be compensated in a long term by a superb hand, including US/Japan Pact, NATO, NORAD, Nuclear Test Ban, Duck And Cover, UN Intervention, and Soc-Govs -- by the way, how would you open and headline with such a hand? USSR opening was one of the standard ones, 4EGER/4POL and I don't remember whether the 6th inf went to Yugoslavia, Austria, or EGER, I played many games that day)
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BData

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Re: Asia blitz opening for USA
« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2014, 03:49:55 pm »
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I probably would have gone with the full strategy discussed here (2 initial in SK and headline US/Japan), at least in a friendly game, just for fun. Putting 2 in SK, not holding Korean War and not following it with US/Japan is too risky for my taste.
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Cal

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Re: Asia blitz opening for USA
« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2014, 05:04:36 am »
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I probably would have gone with the full strategy discussed here (2 initial in SK and headline US/Japan), at least in a friendly game...

You play with +2inf US tournament rules in friendly games?  ;)

I guess this strategy can happen, and I do think US-Japan as a US Turn1 Headline in general is not all that bad because shortening Korean War victory from 1/2 to 1/3 odds is really significant.
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BData

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Re: Asia blitz opening for USA
« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2014, 10:02:11 am »
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You bet, Iím too lazy to select anything but the defaults settings in wargameroom  ;). Also, it seems to balance the game quite well, although it becomes a somewhat different game. Without the bonus, the USSR is almost assured of getting rid of the USA presence in Iran before he can expand. I think the bonus brings more variations into the game.
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pietshaq

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Re: Asia blitz opening for USA
« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2014, 02:44:33 am »
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You play with +2inf US tournament rules in friendly games?  ;)
[/quote]

I usually do, I consider it well-balanced :)
Well, I play with no extra US influence if I use Polish promo card "Bagdad Pact" which is an Early War US non-recurring 1Op card with the following event text (my translation):

"Remove 1 USSR IP from both Iraq and Turkey, then add 1 US IP to either Iran or Pakistan"
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discomute

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Re: Asia blitz opening for USA
« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2014, 10:25:52 pm »
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Great to see some more strategies getting discussed on this forum.

I've always wanted to have a crack at something like this but i really don't think it is optimal
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