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Author Topic: "Par" score for the USSR in early war. Hypothetical.  (Read 2073 times)

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lambolt

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"Par" score for the USSR in early war. Hypothetical.
« on: November 26, 2014, 08:01:37 am »
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Of course, I understand that every game is different, and things can develop in unusual ways, but in the same way that players sometimes bid for opening influence to give the US side, if you were in a World Championship of Twilight Struggle and the prize was one million of your US dollars, and before you saw any cards, and lets assume a standard Deluxe edition, no CCW, but optional cards are in, with the USA at +2IP as seems to be the norm in competitive play

You are given the USSR to play

What would be the number X where you would switch from playing the USSR and take the US instead, starting with the US at X victory points.

i.e. if you think X is 6, then you would prefer to play USA at plus 6 VP rather than USSR.

AGAIN, only considering the final score after the early war. And if I can specify for the sake of avoiding side arguments, there is a bonus of TEN million dollars if you win the game completely but only if you also win your early war condition as well (i.e. you cannot just play in a way that ignores the mid war and late war)


If it sounds complex, it is only because I want to avoid "it depends..." as an answer, and also "well if I only had to play to the end of early war I would ignore this and this and this".


Assume you will play the whole game, the question is only for YOUR OPINION, how many points would you take with the USA to make you switch from USSR, if you have to "win" the Early War (and also then the final game)

Please, answer only the number X with any discussion/reasoning to support only that number you answered.
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pietshaq

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Re: "Par" score for the USSR in early war. Hypothetical.
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2014, 09:59:01 am »
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0.

First of all, in my current situation 1 million $ is just enough not to need next 9 million $ so I'd focus on winning Early War only. Single Duck & Cover headline adds 5VPs to my score (3VPs for the event itself and 2VPs which I won't lose due to the lack of Mil Ops 'cause USSR won't have them either). Once I enter Southeast Asia De-Stalinization and Decolonization become pretty harmless. Instead, I try to avoid USSR War cards. AR6 is concentrated entirely on increasing potential of possible Scoring Cards that may be headlined. Europe is easy to defend short-term, Middle East starts in my favour, Asia may vary.

75% that $1 million is mine. $10 million is something I can give up then.
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lambolt

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Re: "Par" score for the USSR in early war. Hypothetical.
« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2014, 12:05:55 pm »
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you do not get the 1 million if you dont also go on to win the game, as I stated in the beginning :) you have to win EW and LW, and if you lose YOU have to pay the 1 million to the other player.

So, really, you will risk 10 million of your own money to play as the USA without any VP to win the EW and final? The odds with +2IP US are around 50:50 with the best players? so I do not understand your answer


question is, how many points do you think is "average" for USSR after early war and not feel like he is behind. 6?
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lambolt

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Re: "Par" score for the USSR in early war. Hypothetical.
« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2014, 12:07:23 pm »
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another way to say this

if you looked at the stats from every game played, and ignore all games between players who arent beginners (say, played less than 10 times), what is the average score after early war.
I do not agree that it is 0-0
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pietshaq

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Re: "Par" score for the USSR in early war. Hypothetical.
« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2014, 01:03:20 pm »
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It's about -4VPs (4VPs in favor of USSR). That being said, players would probably play different under your circumstances, for two reasons. The first one is that to win the game you have to be leading after the Early War, and the second one is that it occasionally happens that USA scores 20VPs in the Early War (actually, I managed to do this against one of the strongest players in the world about a month ago). USSR doesn't usually play extraordinary moves when US leads by, say, 12VPs. However, 16VPs (12 from the game and 4 from the initial handicap) would change this.
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lambolt

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Re: "Par" score for the USSR in early war. Hypothetical.
« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2014, 05:23:57 pm »
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yeah, It would have been great to see this EW 20VP win gamelog to go through what happened!
Dont worry about the "scenario" it was just my way to avoid changing the subject. Really the question is what do you think is "even par" score, I thought I had read -6 so interesting that you think -4. In most of my F2F games I am usually much better as the US, but then collapse in mid and even late war so I am probably making too much effort to not be too far behind in early war and not doing enough to prepare for midwar regions.
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