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Author Topic: Re: Hand analysis & training exercise - daily(?) discussion  (Read 73 times)

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lambolt

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Re: Hand analysis & training exercise - daily(?) discussion
« on: November 26, 2014, 05:19:23 pm »
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Here is the USSR Opening Draw for discussion

Of course, you should also discuss if you would deviate from the standard(?) opening setup of EGERMANY 4, POLAND 4, YUGOSLAVIA 1


NORAD*
Blockade*
Truman Doctrine*
Europe Scoring
Warsaw Pact Formed*
De Gaulle Leads France*
Indo-Pakistani War
Arab-Israeli War

plus The China Card of course
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lambolt

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Re: Hand analysis & training exercise - daily(?) discussion
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2014, 05:20:28 pm »
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Here is the USA Opening Draw for discussion

Of course, you should also discuss how you would set up, beit WGERMANY 4, ITALY 3 or even FRANCE 3, plus where you put the extra 2IP (presumably in IRAN as standard)


Middle East Scoring
Red Scare/Purge
CIA Created*
Nuclear Test Ban
Captured Nazi Scientist*
Olympic Games
Fidel*
UN Intervention
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lambolt

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Re: Hand analysis & training exercise - daily(?) discussion
« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2014, 06:13:24 pm »
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USA analysis (from a beginner)


setting up 4 WGERMANY, 3 ITALY, 3 IRAN

Headline Choices
Middle East Scoring, Red Scare / Purge, CIA created, Captured Nazi Scientist, Olympic Games

Problem Cards
Fidel

Total OPS: 15 (if headline ME scoring)

Discussion
Not super high on OPS but a lot of nice events including the favourite RED SCARE/PURGE. Is that an automatic headline? 4 OPS always looks very nice in hand even though this will effectively take away up to 7 OPS (but probably less since USSR should have some low ops cards too), is there any truth in RSP being more likely to force the USSR to use CHINA CARD in the opening turn just to get something done, especially in a low ops hand?
Both Nazi Scientist and Olympic Games I've headlined before, they seem to be natural fits for beginners who don't have a great command of what all the cards are really good for. NAZI is low ops and gets you a VP boost with the Space Race which I think is nice, and it's removed so opponent won't see it. Olympics is an extra OPS but you've also got a decent chance to win 2VP, USSR will never refuse this on Turn 1 headline and give up the 2-1 coup advantage, right?
The other thing of note is that MIDDLE EAST SCORING is ripe for 4VP if headlined and no USSR headline shenanigans, since the middle east often turns to crap, and indeed AR1 often sees a USSR coup in IRAN, then headlining it will probably get you your best result from that. With the extra setup in IRAN though, the USSR needs a result of 9 to break control of IRAN and that seems poor odds (does the USSR still try to coup IRAN against 3/0 setup?).

OK, let's headline RED SCARE PURGE. That also means unless he has one of the 4OPS cards, or uses CHINA he is going to have little chance to take me out in IRAN.

Then I can play MIDDLE EAST SCORING on AR1. This of course depends on him NOT rolling a 6 in the coup

The only danger card I have is FIDEL, ideally you might not want to throw that in the discard pile so early, and you do have UN INTERVENTION. So is it best to play it with UN knowing it could come back again in Turn 3, or bite the bullet early and get the event gone. I'm not sure I see any advantage in that, so let's say we make use of UN with FIDEL (of course, taking the event means we could get the extra OPS.

As a beginner I might get a bit giddy with an RSP opening followed by 4VP on Middle East. Nazi Scientist and Olympics potentially puts me at +8 in the opening turn and because of RSP I've probably not lost out on so many ops compared to USSR. I do think that the proper way to play the hand is to use the OPS, especially from Olympics, but lets say I did get a bit giddy about the VP situation

Lets say the USSR coups Panama with a 3ops card (now 3), and rolls a 4. THats Panama flipped but not under control. DEFCON 4

AR2 OLYMPICS for 2VP (assumed), before I forget the DEFCON status which I am assuming is now 4 after he coups PANAMA. He won't refuse and give me 4 OPS so DEFCON still 4, I'm assuming he has played 2 net ops to reinforce PANAMA now

AR3 I would wade in with the big ops on NUCLEAR TEST BAN, assuming USSR made a coup on PANAMA where the odds are much better. I don't think I would counter coup in PANAMA even though the odds would be in my favour. Instead I would probably put 2 OPs each in SOUTH KOREA and AFGHANISTAN for control of both. I'm a bit nervous about Pakistan now as a recent game taught me the pain of the INDIA-PAKISTAN war. It is possible I suppose that he tried to coup SOUTH KOREA but again not a good odds play under RSP. I actually struggle to imagine what the USSR does ops wise on AR2/3 under RSP with no cheap coup targets. He will have some events of course, lets say he doesnt COUP so DEFCON is still at 4. Would he bolster SYRIA and IRAQ even though the scoring card has gone?


AR4 I need to think about military ops too, and I can only take a crack at Iraq or Syria. I only have 2 ops left so go for the SYRIA coup needing 3 to get him out, 4 to get in, 5 to control it. Decent odds and 2 Mil Ops satisfied. Thats 2 ops from UN INTERVENTION with FIDEL by the way. Is it possible that I should have used the NUCLEAR TEST BAN 4 ops to do the middle east coup first, maybe even in IRAQ? DEFCON is now 3.

AR5 I'm playing NAZI scientist event for the space race, for 2 more VP (very possible he went on space race already)

AR6 I'm playing CIA CREATED for 1 OP in the PHILIPINES for control there

A lot of probably very bad assumptions there and I think it must be a mistake to get carried away in small points gains early, it just feels refreshing to be able to take a decent lead as the USA for a change! I doubt expert players would play those events, and would instead use the OPS to develop in ASIA more, maybe even lock SOUTH AFRICA? It's likely the space race would have been used (though under RSP he would need to throw a 3OPS card so unless he has something like Containment in his hand he might avoid space race too). If all the points went in though, 8-0 up after Turn 1 where you've RSP limited the USSR, locked Western Asia and DEFCON might still be at 3, sounds pretty good. I know thats not the reality of this hand though, but thats why we're here - to learn

alright, tell me how wrong I am!
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lambolt

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Re: Hand analysis & training exercise - daily(?) discussion
« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2014, 06:14:31 pm »
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Forgot to say that you don't have to formulate a plan for the hands, you can just as well comment on what other people post, point out mistakes or misconceptions, even from a card play here or there. It's all good as a learning exercise.
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lambolt

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Re: Hand analysis & training exercise - daily(?) discussion
« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2014, 06:37:36 pm »
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OK for the USSR with standard setup, and the hand above

I don't have a lot of great choices for headline. I don't want to headline and lose blockade or warsaw pact. de gaulle is useless with an empty france, the wars are useful to hold onto, the other events are for the USA.

So I headline Europe scoring and get it over and done with. How surprised I am to see "him" headline RSP which cripples the OPS in my hand even further.

AR1 I've got the first coup, and PANAMA is my only realistic chance, using DE GAULLEs modified 2 OPS, and a reasonable roll of 4 gets me into PANAMA without control. a 5 would give me control of it. DEFCON now 4.

AR2 let me use an OP from ARAB ISRAELI WAR to take control of PANAMA

AR3 NORAD for event (he hasnt played into CANADA yet) and the 2 ops to bolster SYRIA and IRAQ

AR4 WARSAW PACT for event (yeah probably best to keep it for later), but take control of YUGOSLAVIA (Independent Reds alert!) and FINLAND. Now Truman event does nothing

AR5 TRUMAN do nothing event and the 1 op, take IRAQ control.

AR6 I'll drop BLOCKADE on him, what you don't have any 3 OPS cards left you muppet, bye bye West Germany (perhaps I should have saved Europe scoring for AR6 and headlined ARAB ISRAELI WAR instead, as I'd forgotten that I was playing against an imbecile)

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