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Author Topic: "2 IPs too much at the start" (headline choices)  (Read 2440 times)

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lambolt

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"2 IPs too much at the start" (headline choices)
« on: March 11, 2015, 03:00:06 pm »
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I was intrigued by Rikus comment about an example where he'd headline CIA created because using a 2 ops card "was too much at the start". I understand that he is an elite player, and between extremely competent players, there are a lot of fine lines between winning and losing, on the other hand, is it not fair to say that the luck of the draw is at least as big as the effect of playing a 2 vs 1 OPS headline in Turn 1? And if not, the dice rolling in the coups (especially in Turn 1 when there will presumably be 3) is certainly a bigger variable factor than the difference between 1 and 2 ops Turn 1 headlines. I'm not saying the choice in the example he gave was wrong (I wouldn't claim he was wrong in *any* example) but come on, you don't need to be an expert to see there are some areas in this game that are random and of much higher variability than this, and whether or not it "evens out" in the long run (or even in the same game), bad luck in cards or dice at different strategic points in the game are not equal in effect even if they are in number (and often they're not even in any way). (this doesnt even include the difference between a 1 OPS card with a good or neutral event vs a 2 OPS card with a bad event)
« Last Edit: March 11, 2015, 03:01:23 pm by lambolt »
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pietshaq

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Re: "2 IPs too much at the start" (headline choices)
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2015, 03:33:44 am »
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I guess your reasoning is mixing two types of random factor calculations. One of them is a random factor that is yet to happen and the other one is a random factor that had already happened. When you play Brush War, you spend 3 Ops and then count on a die roll. But choosing a headline is dealing with the former one because the drawing of cards is already behind you. 2 Ops may be too much with a specific hand and not too much with some other hand. Ops in the earlier turns are more valuable than those in the former turns because the earlier the influence point is put on the board the more (statistically) scorings it will affect. Also note that 4 Ops are something different in different situations. A 4 Ops card + a Scoring Card can be used differently than a 3 Ops card + a 1 Op card and differently than 2 cards having 2 Ops each. For example, breaking opponent's control is not possible with 1 Ops cards, no matter how many of them you will be able to play in a row. So if you contest a particular region that is to be scored in the current turn for sure, it may be better to have a hand full of 2-Ops cards (and break control round by round not giving the opponent time to score under favorable circumstances) than a hand full of threes and ones which allows repairing damage and score well as soon as you run out of threes.
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Riku Riekkinen

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Re: "2 IPs too much at the start" (headline choices)
« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2015, 07:32:08 pm »
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Don't count too much on my half assed answers ;). I meant on that hand there was no real headline that was not totally waste of OPs (there was India-Pakistan war which in that case would be about 1VP (50-50 success) & 2 MIL OPs (which are easy first turn)). Indo-Pakistan is quite good first turn assuming your opponent wins Pakistan (Charles Robinson (very, very good player and closest to my mentor as I see) thinks its one of good card in first turn). Duck & Cover was 3OPs for 1VP & 1DEFCON (not worth it). So in order to not headline 2OPs with no real value, one could headline 1OPs with great value (CIA). The cost of it (USSR not being under DEFCON risk) is in my opinion worth it. I've played many games where CIA just pops in US hand anyway. Also start IPs aare more important than late ones.
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lambolt

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Re: "2 IPs too much at the start" (headline choices)
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2015, 03:12:55 pm »
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thanks guys!
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MarlesChartel

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Re: "2 IPs too much at the start" (headline choices)
« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2015, 06:38:29 pm »
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Events open up opportunities. Ops exploit opportunities.

At the start of the game, both sides have a lot of open opportunities. Thus people need ops and not events.

80% of the time, a card is better as ops than as an event. Since ops are better in turn 1, there are very few cards that are actually better as events than as ops.
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lambolt

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Re: "2 IPs too much at the start" (headline choices)
« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2015, 06:55:07 am »
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I Think the spirit of the rules feels to me that "using ops for spacing" actually just refers to the requirements for certain number of ops on different space race Squares. You "need" the card to have 2 (or 3, or 4) ops to be able to "space it", its just a requirement (which makes the 1 ops cards and cards under RS/P a pain), but you're not "using the ops" in the same way as with coups and influence.
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