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Author Topic: Some game statistics  (Read 1113 times)

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wiggin

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Some game statistics
« on: November 05, 2015, 02:16:43 pm »
+1

I kept track of the results of the games I've played over the last few months, and whether Destal or Decol was played in turn 1-3 by USSR.

All games were on Wargameroom, random side, and +2 US.


Total games: 39

Wins: 28
Loses: 11

USSR wins 23
USA wins 16

If USSR got decol turn 1-3:
USSR wins: 14
USA wins: 8
If USSR did not get decol turn 1-3:
USSR wins: 9
USA wins: 7

If USSR got destal turn 1-3:
USSR wins: 13
USA wins: 3
If USSR did not get destal turn 1-3:
USSR wins: 7
USA wins: 8

If USSR got either destal or decol turn 1-3:
USSR wins: 17
USA wins: 7
If USSR did not get either destal or decol turn 1-3:
USSR wins: 3
USA wins: 3


It seems that USSR has a clear advantage even with the +2, which is caused by the strength of the decol and destal cards.

Of course, the sample size is small, and there is a constant factor in that I played all the games.


I also looked at how long the games were. It is said that the US wins more if the game last longer, and my data support this, although the sample size is small.


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MichaelVal

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Re: Some game statistics
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2015, 02:49:27 pm »
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Cool post!  But, I don't think your numbers add up.

You list 39 games played.  Yet the total games of USSR got either did or did not get Decol in turns 1-3, which should necessarily equal all games played, is 38 (14 + 8 + 9 +7).  The total games in which the USSR either did or did not get Destal in turns 1-3 is only 31 (13 + 3 + 7 + 8 ).

As to total balance between USA and USSR, the much larger sample size of wgr and other competitive games played plus the diversity of players in those competitions suggests that your ratio of USSR-USA victories is skewed for some reason.  Possibly just random luck because of the small sample size.  But, also definitely possible (probable?) that you're just significantly better at USSR than you are at USA.  No doubt getting Decol and Destal early is a significant help to the Soviets, but difficult to say how much from these stats because there is some other influencing factors there.  My takeaway from your post is to always bid high for the commies if I play you in a tournament!  8)
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wiggin

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Re: Some game statistics
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2015, 03:34:59 pm »
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Indeed the numbers do not add up. I wasn't sure if anyone would notice, and I should explain it.

Decol has one missing entry because I lost one game in the headline of turn 3, so the game didn't get to the point where I record it. Destal are missing some more data points, because I didn't keep track of it the first few games.

Yeah I agree that it's highly possible that I'm better at playing USSR (or worse at playing US :) ) Is there data from tournaments / wgr that show that the game is balanced at +2?
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