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Author Topic: How much Ops do you spend to coup Iran as USSR on AR-1?  (Read 2054 times)

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Davio

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How much Ops do you spend to coup Iran as USSR on AR-1?
« on: January 12, 2016, 04:13:36 am »
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Assuming you have your pick of 1-4 Ops, not considering the event, which card do you pick to coup Iran?
And what outcome do you hope for?
I read it's beneficial to leave no influence in Iran, because then the US can't coup back, although couping back is kind of a waste for the US, since USSR can recoup and bring DEFCON to 2.

The odds are as follows for stability 2, n = number of die results which result in a successful coup (influence shifts at least one towards your side):
Formula for expected influence shift = (1 / 6) * sum(1..n), EV is expected value is expected amount of influence shift
1 Op: EV = (1 / 6) * (1 + 2 + 3) = 6/6 = 1
2 Ops: EV = (1 / 6) * (1 + 2 + 3 + 4) = 10/6 = 1 4/6 = 1.666666...
3 Ops: EV = (1 / 6) * (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5) = 15/6 = 2 3/6 = 2.5
4 Ops: EV = (1 / 6) * (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6) = 21/6 = 3 3/6 = 3.5

Thing is, EV is pretty useless here. Say you spend 1 Op, 50% of the time you will end up with 0/0 or better, but 50% of the time (roll 1-3) there will be no change. I don't like those odds as with failure you've just wasted a precious turn and card, which are the most important commodities.

Spending 4 Ops guarantees the coup will succeed and result in 0/0 (only when you roll 1) or better, the max being 0/5 (roll 6).

So it seems to me that spending 4 ops is the best option as it guarantees you've not wasted your turn, but obviously if you roll 6 with a 4 Ops card, it seems like you've wasted that card and could have played a lower Ops one.

What are your thoughts on this?
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Eruantalon

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Re: How much Ops do you spend to coup Iran as USSR on AR-1?
« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2016, 09:05:27 am »
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I guess it makes much more sense to discuss the decision made with standard setup - US +2.

With 3 Ops in Iran (95% of games, or more) I only coup with 2 cards. It's either a 4' (since I have 50% chance of a good result - emptying Iran/getting 2 or 3 ops which discourage re-coup also giving me upper hand, if US still tries it). or it's 1 op, counting on rolling a '6' to empty Iran. 2 ops make no sense at all (only difference with 1 op is chance to have 1 inf in Iran, which is not too good). Having to coup with 3 op would mean I have low-op hand. In such case I probably don't have resources to 1. Engage in coup war 2. Risk losing via unfortunate die roll.

I'd consider using 3 op, if US puts only 1 extra inf to Iran.
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KiG

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Re: How much Ops do you spend to coup Iran as USSR on AR-1?
« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2016, 09:52:00 am »
+1

There are some special cases for the coup, Vietnam Revolts + Duck and Cover can be a useful combo. If Italy and Iran are at 3 then Italy may sometimes be a better option as a 3+ is a good result. Of course you don't have to coup if you have some other useful option!
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MichaelVal

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Re: How much Ops do you spend to coup Iran as USSR on AR-1?
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2016, 10:14:11 am »
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If it's default or USA +1 set up, probably the biggest card I can afford to play.  If it's USA +2, then totally depends upon the rest of the cards in my hand, but ideally a 4.
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