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Author Topic: Dealing with both decol and destal turn 2 as USA  (Read 3626 times)

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bsheehan34

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Dealing with both decol and destal turn 2 as USA
« on: November 01, 2012, 02:02:57 am »
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so my question is which of these two crucial ussr cards would you rather hold to keep out of the turn 3 reshuffle if you draw both on turn 1 or 2?

my opinion is destal because it gives south america access. the ussr has other ways of getting into africa and se asia so not getting decol isn't as painful as never seeing destal in my opinion.
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Cal

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Re: Dealing with both decol and destal turn 2 as USA
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2012, 03:40:42 am »
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Best solution is to hope the USSR played the China Card in Turn1 so you can play it in Turn2 and hold both of them.

If you absolutely must space one before Turn2 is over...

De-Stalinization
Reasons why it's dangerous: Lets the USSR put influence anywhere there is no US control anywhere on the map with no limitations other than two-inf max per country.
Reasons why it's not so dangerous: It's a one-time use event. It's 3-ops, which is high enough to be useful on its own, and an inexperienced or otherwise USSR player who desperately needs ops might not play it for the event. It requires the USSR remove 4inf from somewhere else, which it might not have a comfortable way of doing. It is also possible to spend on the space race (before man in earth orbit) if under Red Scare. The USSR must play this only at defcon2, because otherwise the US will coup them wherever they put influence in a mid-war bg. Will likely give the US a mid-war bg target for CIA Created to make it a defcon suicide card. It's possible the USSR will group the influence together in only three or two countries, making it easier to coup or realign.

Decolonization
Reasons why it's dangerous: Is not a one-time only event. There are many SE Asia and Africa countries that are only 1-stability and so will be controlled if there is no influence in them already. It is only 2-op, so the USSR will always* play it for the event. If the USSR puts everything in SE Asia, they can play it comfortably at defcon 3. Similarly, if all influence is placed in SE Asia, then CIA Created will not become a defcon suicide card. Allows the USSR to gain a back-door entrance to France through Algeria. Becomes a 1-op card and cannot be spaced when under Red Scare.
Reasons why it's not dangerous: Only 1influence in Africa stability-1 bgs are the easiest and most likely coup targets. US gets its own version of this with Colonial Rear Guards.

Summation: I'd space-race De-Stalinization in Turn2 and hold Decolonization to space in Turn3. They're both dangerous cards, but it takes slightly more effort for the USSR to set up the exact conditions it needs to comfortably play De-Stalinization for the event (due to the need to subtract influence). Remember there is never a restriction on realigning a mid-war country. If the USSR de-stalinizes into S. America, just spend a card to try to realign him away. Even if you don't change influence, you will probably scare him into spending more ops there while ignoring the Early War countries.

I've seen some US players play De-Stalinization as their Turn1 AR1 card, or even their Turn1 headline. I don't recommend this.

*- I guess I shouldn't use absolutes here. There might be a situation where the USSR already has a mountain of influence in Africa and SE Asia and so decides decolonization would be better used for ops, but that would be a very rare and highly unlikely.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2012, 03:43:23 am by Cal »
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JGH

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Re: Dealing with both decol and destal turn 2 as USA
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2012, 08:48:43 am »
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I agree with Cal pretty much through and through.

The exact situation occurred in my most recent game, and thinking it through, it seemed to me spacing destal was the better move.

I'd add that there is another point to be taken into account. If Asia scoring hasn't come out yet, decol is that much more powerful, since the USSR can break SEA country controls like Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines with decol, possibly giving him enough time to get a quick advantageous scoring if the US hasn't yet tied battlegrounds and is hoping for total country count to stop domination. So if you space decol, and it is drawn by the USSR the next turn, he can simply headline decol, then score Asia on AR1 for a very, very painful experience.
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Nightlyraver

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Re: Dealing with both decol and destal turn 2 as USA
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2012, 12:53:42 pm »
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If you draw both on Turn 2, then you should usually space DeStal on Turn 2 and then space DeCol on Turn 3.  If you do the opposite, your opponent could actually draw DeCol on Turn 3, use it, and then get to use it again (and rarely even a 3rd time) since it's a recurring event.  Spacing it at Turn 3 almost guarantees only 1 use, and you may even be able to space it on Turn 4 which certainly guarantees 1 use at most.
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bsheehan34

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Re: Dealing with both decol and destal turn 2 as USA
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2012, 05:22:06 pm »
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another argument from me for holding destal is that it can be used to discard to blockade.  Ive actually forced usa players into playing decol on turn 2 when they spaced destal and then i hit them with blockade and they were unable to space another card.
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theory

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Re: Dealing with both decol and destal turn 2 as USA
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2012, 09:00:49 pm »
+2

I do think De-Stal is the one to hold and Decol to space:

1) De-Stal is easier to space (like if you are Purged)
2) I'd rather try to flip Africa than flip South America
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Cal

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Re: Dealing with both decol and destal turn 2 as USA
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2012, 05:16:30 am »
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2) I'd rather try to flip Africa than flip South America

I thought about this, and still think Decolonization is the one to hold and space on Turn3. If the USSR sees that Decolonization has been spaced, then he will probably use some influence from De-Stalinization to get into Africa, probably 2 total to grab Nigeria and either Angola/Zaire or possibly Algeria. That leaves 1inf each in the two regions of Venezuela/Brazil and Chile/Argentina than the usual 1-inf to all four SA battlegrounds.

It is worth it then to spend ops on realigning South America.  You only need two successes to remove the USSR completely and limit him to get in through coup, Junta, or Allende. Meanwhile Africa remains a good target to flip.
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theory

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Re: Dealing with both decol and destal turn 2 as USA
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2012, 10:39:36 am »
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You only have one shot to do that realign though.  The odds aren't really in your favor even with a 4 Ops.  I don't have the accurate probabilities, but it's roughly similar to 2 Ops removing 1 influence from a -1 country twice, which is 47.84% squared.

The other thing with Decol, is, you can get to Angola/Zaire before he plays it.  And if you do, then you can repair those easily, and probably at least hold onto Angola/Zaire/SA for a while.
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Billw147

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Re: Dealing with both decol and destal turn 2 as USA
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2012, 10:50:33 am »
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Had this very situation occur on Turn 2, as US holding both Destal and Decol and no China card.
 
Normally I would have thought holding Destal the better move and spacing Decol, but in the particular circumstances below I felt it better to hold Decol.  The reasons are explained in my brief overview of the game below:
 
Turn 1.  I headlined Europe scoring for Nil points.  USSR headlined a successful Arab Israeli War, followed by a weak Iran coup.  I successfully counter couped (wanting presence in ME) and USSR counter counter couped using US/Japan to solidly hold Iran.  With Defcon at 2 I focussed on Asia and started to put IP in South America (primarily because Europe had already scored and I was locked out of ME and thought if I go Columbia and opponent coups me I have a possible coup target in Turns 2 and 3 for Military ops.  If I am not couped in Columbia I can get Venezuela .  USSR played into Asian Triangle, Roman Abdication and locked down Turkey (to keep the one of the back doors to ME shut) and scored ME.  Asia scoring did not show on Turn 1.
 
Start of Turn 2, I had 1IP in Columbia, 2 IP in Venezuela and 2IP in Brazil.  The USSR chose not to coup either Venezuela or Brazil on AR1 of Turn 2 but Headline De-Gaule and then take France in AR1 for Europe domination (just). I had nothing special to headline (Captured Nazi Scientists).
 
As I held both Decol and Destal, in this case I figured that Fidel is still out there and I already have good presence in South America, so Destal in the Americas did not seem too painful, so my plan was to hold Decol.  I also had SE Asia locked down (with no USSR presence down there) and preventing domination in Asia even though USSR had North & South Korea, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.  I even had control of Vietnam due to a USSR Turn 1 AR6 play of Containment and me playing 3IP into Vietnam and playing Vietnam Revolts on AR6 to ensure I prevented domination.
 
Turn 2 consisted of mostly cancelling each other out in Europe and Asia, with Asia deadlocked but USSR still retaining an edge in Europe, principally because I was low on IP and was spending some IP crawling into ME through Africa and spending an IP in Uruguay to finish with playing Destal for ops in Argentina, thus making Chile the only South America Destal target (which I was not that bothered about as USSR usually get into Chile with Allende in any case).
 
At this point I was feeling pretty confident, keeping both Decol and Destal out of USSR hands and good board position apart from ME.
 
Going into AR6 of Turn 2, Asia had not scored and I was holding Destal for the 3 ops as my last action (aiming to play it for ops rather than space it I as did not see it doing much damage) and I figured that USSR would have less time to build on its IP placement from Destal.
 
As luck would have it (not!),  USSR AR6 was Blockade(!).  As I had already lost France and felt confident of contesting Europe, I really had no choice but to discard Destal to retain WG.  Unfortunately I then had to space Decol, thus wasting my AR6 action.  Not great for me, especially losing AR6, but board position still looked good albeit I was about 8VP down.
 
But being as lucky as I was (not!), USSR drew both on Turn 3.  Decol was headlined with IP in Thailand and Africa.  USSR AR 1 took Thailand from me.  So USSR had gained presence in Africa, and had 5/6 battlegrounds in Asia with temporary domination.  As I did not hold Asia scoring, I knew USSR had it.  I had the tough choice of a BG coup in Africa or contest Asia to ensure no domination.  Knowing Asia was to score (and I was already struggling in Europe and ME) I contested it and successfully prevented domination but USSR still scored 4 VP.  As the turn played out I saw USSR held Destal,  This meant USSR was still able to grab some presence in the rest of the world without any significant effort and be well placed to contest the Americas and Africa in Mid-War.
 
USSR dominated and scored in ME and Europe (in Turns 4 and 5), putting them close to 20 (net 3 domination scores in game), SE Asia (my main bastion of power (albeit I had lost Thailand) had not come out and the rest of the world was relatively balanced.  US had better board position and more battlegrounds,, but USSR scoring was helped with a 4 turn central America scoring whilst holding Cuba from Fidel and Mexico from Destal from Turn 3.  Overall Americas and Africa scoring was roughly net nil.
 
Start of Turn 6, USSR won with AR1 WWBY.
 
A very strange game.  I really felt as though I had good board position but was beaten before I had a chance to claw things back.  Not sure what I could have done differently, perhaps not spent so much in S America, perhaps not tried to claw in the back door to ME and just wait for events to get me back in?
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Cal

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Re: Dealing with both decol and destal turn 2 as USA
« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2012, 06:01:06 pm »
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You only have one shot to do that realign though.
Not necessarily. I find the habit of the USSR player who uses De-Stalinization to get an anchor to South America usually then forgets about it to go back to focusing on Early-War regions, maybe putting another influence in whenever he has a spare op. Attempting realignments might scare him into then controlling adjacent countries to get an overall +2, but that could also potentially disrupt his plan to spend ops somewhere else.

The other thing with Decol, is, you can get to Angola/Zaire before he plays it.  And if you do, then you can repair those easily, and probably at least hold onto Angola/Zaire/SA for a while.
Technically true, but putting influence in Angola and Zaire makes me uneasy as the US. Despite tricks you can do like headlining Duck and Cover, the USSR will get that opening coup most of the time, and Angola/Zaire/Nigeria are the easiest battlegrounds to coup. The first one to coup them usually has a much better chance of holding on to them because they might roll high and end up with 5+ influence in them. In the early game where you don't have a chance to set up control in neighboring countries to realign if this happens, I like to delay taking Angola/Zaire until Turn4 arrives. Or better, go ahead and let the USSR take them with one influence and then wait until Nuclear Subs or a card like Grain Sales lets me coup first. In a real pinch, 3ops will flip control.

Though your arguments for getting rid of De-Stalinization over decolonization are good and persuasive. Certainly I'll have to think more about it.
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