Twilight Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

News:

Download the Twilight Strategy e-book!

Pages: [1] 2  All

Author Topic: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma  (Read 9956 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Matty Defense

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 74
  • Respect: +13
    • View Profile
Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« on: November 23, 2012, 07:43:35 am »
0

Since I started playing TS, I have almost always been the USA.  Why?  I really do not know, but I really do not like being the USSR player (probably because I have no clue how to play as the USSR).

Anyways, I have a new dilemma.  My most frequent opponent (who will no doubt read this post) has changed strategy against my standard USA setup which is 4 in WGermany 3 in Italy.  He now almost always conducts and Italy coup with a 4 OP card which gives him a 50% chance of at least removing all of my influence.  I countered with 1 OP in Greece but that just increased his odds and he ended up with influence in Italy.  All of this, and now I end up scrambling in Europe while he runs away with Asia.

Any suggestions?
Logged
I post a lot but I get no respect!

Eruantalon

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 53
  • Wargameroom username: Janusz_Wójciak
  • Respect: +14
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2012, 08:13:36 am »
0

Well, without socialist goverments it's pretty risky to make this Italy coup - in case of failure just rebulid Italy and take Afganistan. Even if he succedes, you may just take Afganistan and try to expand in ME + take cheap Europe Countries and hold on to WG (fortify it in case of some bad Quamire, I'd say - at least 7 Inf.

Of course it helps to have Marshal Plan...
Logged

Jayne Starlancer

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 35
  • Hero of Canton
  • Respect: +9
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2012, 09:39:01 am »
0

I used to coup Italy, but the prevailing wisdom among TS players seems to be a USSR coup against Iran on AR1. As you gain experience, you realize that access to regions is just as important as controlling specific countries. If the USSR player leaves Iran alone on AR1, then expand into Afghanistan and W. Asia, giving you access to Asian battlegrounds that you might not otherwise be able to reach in the Early War.

If you grab Afghanistan during AR1, then the USSR faces a dilemma. If he coups Iran, then you can immediately move into Pakistan and Malaysia on your AR2, and could potentially control Pakistan, India, and Thailand by AR 4. That's a huge problem for the USSR. While he may gain ground in Europe, you are likely to benefit in the end because Asia scoring will be more lopsided than Europe scoring (you will gain more points from your Domination of Asia than he will gain from his Domination of Europe).
Logged

Cal

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 148
  • Respect: +55
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2012, 02:37:14 pm »
+1

This is a tough situation that you should not ignore. Best case scenario, his coup of Italy won't remove your influence to the point you can't rebuild.

However, if the USSR does get influence/control in Italy, if you outright ignore him, you could lose France too. That puts the US in a very precarious state where they only control W. Germany. Therefore I suggest putting 1inf in France in addition to going into Asia and Iraq. The USSR can still take France with a 4op card, but having 1inf there means a combination of NORAD and Truman Doctrine can remove him from France completely.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2012, 04:48:01 pm by Cal »
Logged

bsheehan34

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 44
  • Wargameroom username: brad_ts
  • Respect: +20
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2012, 05:28:00 pm »
0

Put one or two into France and expand out of Iran into western Asia. Afghanistan most likely but If you hold indo pak war going to Pakistan and daring him to coup with the China card can work very well too.
Logged

Matty Defense

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 74
  • Respect: +13
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2012, 07:36:54 pm »
0

My response to this and the other move into Asia suggestions:  I can't just move into Asia after his Italy coup - He could just coup me right out of Asia with DEFCON4 status and I can't coup back.  I know the prevailing strategy is the T1 AR1 Iran coup, but this Italy coup is driving me nuts.

My counter setup to a possible Italy coup has been:  3 WG, 3 Italy, 1 either Greece/Spain.  Of course, I only play this setup if I have SocialistGovern in my hand (which I play as an empty AR).  Otherwise, if I don't have SocialistGovern, I am stuck with the standard 4/3 setup which if he HL's SocialistGovern, he goes with 2 out of Italy and then the Italy coup.

I think that the prevailing strategy of TS players might need to be re-examined.  This Italy coup is really problematic because even it if it just removes influence only, as the US player, you have to respond.  Basically, you spend T1 completely on the defensive and reacting to USSR.  Unless you are dealt a monster hand and he has a clunker, it is almost impossible to seize the initiative from the USSR when they run the Italy coup (at least so far that has been the case - I need a greater sample size of games played to confirm this).

When the Iran coup occurs (as the standard bearer of TS games), the USA player can react as follows:  T1 AR1 - shore up Europe or coup to lower DEFCON and make Asia a safe play, T1 AR2 - play into SE Asia via Australia.  In these cases you may not be seizing the initiative but you are at least leveling the playing field.
Logged
I post a lot but I get no respect!

Jayne Starlancer

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 35
  • Hero of Canton
  • Respect: +9
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2012, 07:49:12 pm »
0

My response to this and the other move into Asia suggestions:  I can't just move into Asia after his Italy coup - He could just coup me right out of Asia with DEFCON4 status and I can't coup back.

You need to place the Asia influence in Afghanistan, which is a non-battleground. If the USSR coups Afghanistan, then DEFCON does not lower and you can coup back (which is nice because now you have your Mil Ops for the turn, which might be hard to get for the US otherwise). Malaysia is different because if the USSR coups there he now has access to Thailand if your counter-coup fails. You certainly don't want to get into a non-battleground coup war with the USSR, but if he spends is best 4 Ops cards on non-battleground coups in Asia, then he is not expanding into key locations in other regions.

The key is not to expand into the Asian battlegrounds until DEFCON drops to 3. But you want to be able to get there first, so it is a balancing act.
Logged

bsheehan34

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 44
  • Wargameroom username: brad_ts
  • Respect: +20
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2012, 07:51:55 pm »
0

If he coups you when you take Afghanistan that would be fine to me. He is using more ops than necessary to control the country, there is a chance he fails the roll, and it is a country he can take with direct placement so forcing him to coup is good. Now if you hold indo pak war I would move to Pakistan instead, if he coups you get a 50/50 shot at flipping it back your way.  You don't want to coup to drop defcon before playing into Asia because then he can coup Iran and lock you out of western Asia and have Italy. Now you really are in big trouble.
Logged

Billw147

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 23
  • Wargameroom username: Billw147
  • Respect: +5
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2012, 05:11:03 am »
0

With the default rules giving US +1 inf, which almost always goes to Iran, then Italy becomes a more viable option if holding Socialist Governments.

Previously I would use any high ops card on Iran coup but with 2 starting IP there, I'm not willing to risk a problem US card (eg Marshall, US/Japan, Norad, EEU) on a coup that perhaps has only a 50% chance of a good result.

I initially did not like playing an extra IP to US at set up, but now i like the fact that there is much more variety in the early game, rather than the almost always expected Iran coup.
Logged

Ioan76_TM

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18
  • Respect: +10
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2012, 03:37:46 am »
0

I initially did not like playing an extra IP to US at set up, but now i like the fact that there is much more variety in the early game, rather than the almost always expected Iran coup.

I also don't like to play with additional starting inf for US ( or for USSR ?  :P ) - and I feel that this is more a design flaw and +1 in Iran will not properly compensate it ... but maybe is just my opinion.  ::)
Logged

Matty Defense

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 74
  • Respect: +13
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2012, 10:50:58 am »
0

I initially did not like playing an extra IP to US at set up, but now i like the fact that there is much more variety in the early game, rather than the almost always expected Iran coup.

I also don't like to play with additional starting inf for US ( or for USSR ?  :P ) - and I feel that this is more a design flaw and +1 in Iran will not properly compensate it ... but maybe is just my opinion.  ::)

I have never played with additional starting influence for the USA.

Regarding the dilemma I have been facing, I will just have to try an early expansion into Asia via Afghanistan and see what the response is.  However, I am sure that with a successful Italy coup/elimination of USA influence in Italy (which I would deem as successful), the response from the USSR will be to add inf to Italy and then threaten France.  I guess this is why this Italy play is actually more success than what everyone seems to be giving it credit for.  The Italy play and a USA response into Asia seizes none of the initiative from the USSR and gives the USSR a full head of steam for Euro domination or even worse Euro control.
Logged
I post a lot but I get no respect!

Jack Rudd

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 37
  • Respect: +17
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2012, 11:32:23 am »
0

The Italy play and a USA response into Asia seizes none of the initiative from the USSR and gives the USSR a full head of steam for Euro domination or even worse Euro control.
And does nothing for the USSR in either of the other two Early War scoring regions. That's the key point: an Iran coup gives the USSR the initiative in two regions, an Italy coup in just one.
Logged

SnowFire

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 43
  • Respect: +15
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2012, 11:43:49 am »
0

Pretty much echoing what everyone else has said.  If you lose Euro dom, you lose Euro dom.  It's not the end of the world, and if you swing an Asia + ME dom off it, you'll be the one laughing in the end.  I'd also say to keep the 3 starting influence in Italy - that should just shrug off a bunch of coups, and is less owned by Socialist governments than 2 Italy / 1 Greece (where the USSR gets to coup Iran AND collect Italy for free AR2)

The only thing I'd add is that if the game goes USSR AR1 powerful Italy coup -> US AR1  3 ops 2 Afghanistan / 2(1+1) Iran -> USSR AR2 collect France, then you should obviously religiously keep a Soviet 3 ops around to discard to Blockade, and if you fear Red Scare + not having a 4 ops, to pre-emptively stick a single influence in Denmark so you can just walk back in again if you get Blockade'd to stop a Euro Control victory.
Logged

Matty Defense

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 74
  • Respect: +13
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2012, 03:53:29 pm »
0

I ran through a game where I pretty much gave up Euro domination and held onto WGermany while playing for Asia/ME domination.  Through a series of just awful hands (I think at least four in a row), I lost ME domination (which is what usually seems to happen to USA) and USSR got control of Asia.  My ONLY saving grace was I had CA control and SA domination (Africa was split).  What I did not like was the ever present possibility that USSR could run for Euro control easily in Late War with cards like Reformer and Aldrich Ames (being able to see USA's hand is a tremendous advantage).

I agree that Iran coup on T1AR1 is the way to go for USSR.  My only hope is that Tony32280 reads this and gives up the Italy coup!
Logged
I post a lot but I get no respect!

SnowFire

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 43
  • Respect: +15
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2012, 07:53:43 pm »
0

Well, if you're ever down to just 1 country in Europe, just fortify it super-hard with a double or triple overcontrol, and you should be safe from instant loss.  As the US, double-overcontrolling W. Germany or Italy should generally suffice, the Soviets can't stick more than 2 of their own influence / remove 2 of yours at once there.  (France gets a triple-overcontrol of course as the US if you fear DeGaulle and it's your only European BG.  Italy might need some friendly neighbors if NATO isn't in effect and Brush War is a threat.)
Logged

Nightlyraver

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 50
  • Respect: +9
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2012, 08:50:54 pm »
0

I don't understand why this annoys you so much.  It is widely understood that under most circumstances the AR1 Italy coup is the sub-optimal play.  For the reasons stated above, it allows the US to break out into Asia.  And it forces the soviets to deal with Asia and respond to the US rather than going on the offensive.  So even the most successful Italy coup could backfire on the soviets - gaining the possibility of dominating Europe in exchange for losing Asia and possibly the ME too.

The only time I bother couping Italy as the USSR is if I have red scare/purge, blockade, and two of the 4-ops cards in my hand; because then I am going for the Euro control victory.
Logged

Jayne Starlancer

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 35
  • Hero of Canton
  • Respect: +9
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #16 on: November 25, 2012, 09:03:48 pm »
0

The only time I bother couping Italy as the USSR is if I have red scare/purge, blockade, and two of the 4-ops cards in my hand; because then I am going for the Euro control victory.

That leaves only 2 of the other 4 Ops cards potentially in the US player's hand. I guess those a pretty good odds overall for a Europe Control victory. I will have to remember that these are the key cards-in-hand for Europe Control as the USSR in the Early War.
Logged

Matty Defense

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 74
  • Respect: +13
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #17 on: November 25, 2012, 09:06:08 pm »
0

I don't understand why this annoys you so much.  It is widely understood that under most circumstances the AR1 Italy coup is the sub-optimal play.  For the reasons stated above, it allows the US to break out into Asia.  And it forces the soviets to deal with Asia and respond to the US rather than going on the offensive.  So even the most successful Italy coup could backfire on the soviets - gaining the possibility of dominating Europe in exchange for losing Asia and possibly the ME too.

The only time I bother couping Italy as the USSR is if I have red scare/purge, blockade, and two of the 4-ops cards in my hand; because then I am going for the Euro control victory.

I think that the reason the Italy coup annoys me so much is because it is so much of a sub-optimal play that I do not understand why/when people do it!  When it does work, it throws me out of my element and I guess in this circumstance I am slow to adjust which is my fault.  Call me (among many things) odd, but I really cannot stand the T1AR1 Italy coup.

On a side note, it is good to see discussion on the forums!
Logged
I post a lot but I get no respect!

Matty Defense

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 74
  • Respect: +13
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #18 on: November 25, 2012, 09:09:46 pm »
0

The only time I bother couping Italy as the USSR is if I have red scare/purge, blockade, and two of the 4-ops cards in my hand; because then I am going for the Euro control victory.

That leaves only 2 of the other 4 Ops cards potentially in the US player's hand. I guess those a pretty good odds overall for a Europe Control victory. I will have to remember that these are the key cards-in-hand for Europe Control as the USSR in the Early War.

What is the probability of the two other 4OP cards being drawn into the USA player's hand?  It has to be low and I am in no condition (after 10+ rum laden drinks) to calculate this.
Logged
I post a lot but I get no respect!

bsheehan34

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 44
  • Wargameroom username: brad_ts
  • Respect: +20
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #19 on: November 25, 2012, 10:12:35 pm »
0

I ran through a game where I pretty much gave up Euro domination and held onto WGermany while playing for Asia/ME domination.  Through a series of just awful hands (I think at least four in a row), I lost ME domination (which is what usually seems to happen to USA) and USSR got control of Asia.  My ONLY saving grace was I had CA control and SA domination (Africa was split).  What I did not like was the ever present possibility that USSR could run for Euro control easily in Late War with cards like Reformer and Aldrich Ames (being able to see USA's hand is a tremendous advantage).

I agree that Iran coup on T1AR1 is the way to go for USSR.  My only hope is that Tony32280 reads this and gives up the Italy coup!

how did the ussr get control of asia?
Logged

ristonj

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 9
  • Wargameroom username: JohnRiston_TSL
  • Respect: +5
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #20 on: November 25, 2012, 10:29:06 pm »
+1



What is the probability of the two other 4OP cards being drawn into the USA player's hand?  It has to be low and I am in no condition (after 10+ rum laden drinks) to calculate this.

Total early war cards (EWC): 38
Total USSR cards (USSRC): 8
Total US cards (USC): 8
Possible US cards (PUS): EWC - USSRC = 30
Total 4 OPS cards (4OP): 2 (USSR has 3, leaving 2 total)
Total number of US hand possibilities (USHANDS): PUS choose USC = 30 choose 8
Total number of hands with 2 4OPs (assuming USSR has 3) (US4OP): (PUS - 4OP) choose (USC - 4OP) = 28 choose 6
Odds: US4OP/USHANDS = 6.4%

http://www.google.com/search?q=28+choose+6+divided+by+30+choose+8
Logged

Matty Defense

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 74
  • Respect: +13
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #21 on: November 26, 2012, 09:25:40 am »
0

I ran through a game where I pretty much gave up Euro domination and held onto WGermany while playing for Asia/ME domination.  Through a series of just awful hands (I think at least four in a row), I lost ME domination (which is what usually seems to happen to USA) and USSR got control of Asia.  My ONLY saving grace was I had CA control and SA domination (Africa was split).  What I did not like was the ever present possibility that USSR could run for Euro control easily in Late War with cards like Reformer and Aldrich Ames (being able to see USA's hand is a tremendous advantage).

I agree that Iran coup on T1AR1 is the way to go for USSR.  My only hope is that Tony32280 reads this and gives up the Italy coup!

how did the ussr get control of asia?

I believe that USSR won India/Pakistan War, Brush War (for control of Thailand), and Korean War (used late) all with crazy rolls.  US/JD was spaced and never came back out.  I was scrambling all over the globe and he was able to slide ops in Japan for control.  I was displeased.
Logged
I post a lot but I get no respect!

theory

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 113
  • Respect: +51
    • View Profile
    • Twilight Strategy
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #22 on: November 26, 2012, 09:41:20 am »
0

I don't understand why this annoys you so much.  It is widely understood that under most circumstances the AR1 Italy coup is the sub-optimal play.  For the reasons stated above, it allows the US to break out into Asia.  And it forces the soviets to deal with Asia and respond to the US rather than going on the offensive.  So even the most successful Italy coup could backfire on the soviets - gaining the possibility of dominating Europe in exchange for losing Asia and possibly the ME too.

The only time I bother couping Italy as the USSR is if I have red scare/purge, blockade, and two of the 4-ops cards in my hand; because then I am going for the Euro control victory.

I think that the reason the Italy coup annoys me so much is because it is so much of a sub-optimal play that I do not understand why/when people do it!  When it does work, it throws me out of my element and I guess in this circumstance I am slow to adjust which is my fault.  Call me (among many things) odd, but I really cannot stand the T1AR1 Italy coup.

This is absolutely true.  Europe is unforgiving -- it is very very easy to slip up on the razor's edge and lose the game very quickly.  If you forget about Socialist Governments or Suez Crisis, or get hit by a bad Red Scare, then you can lose the game despite great board position.
Logged

bsheehan34

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 44
  • Wargameroom username: brad_ts
  • Respect: +20
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #23 on: November 26, 2012, 12:29:12 pm »
0

Matt you should post the log for one of your games. Could possibly see where things are going wrong for you.
Logged

ristonj

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 9
  • Wargameroom username: JohnRiston_TSL
  • Respect: +5
    • View Profile
Re: Setup/Turn 1 AR1 Dilemma
« Reply #24 on: November 26, 2012, 04:16:32 pm »
0

The only time I bother couping Italy as the USSR is if I have red scare/purge, blockade, and two of the 4-ops cards in my hand; because then I am going for the Euro control victory.

That leaves only 2 of the other 4 Ops cards potentially in the US player's hand. I guess those a pretty good odds overall for a Europe Control victory. I will have to remember that these are the key cards-in-hand for Europe Control as the USSR in the Early War.

What is the probability of the two other 4OP cards being drawn into the USA player's hand?  It has to be low and I am in no condition (after 10+ rum laden drinks) to calculate this.

Funny enough, the OP's hand is even more unlikely to happen:

2/4 4 Ops cards (4OP): 4 choose 2 = 6
Number of cards in deck (DECK): 38
Number of USSR cards in hand (HAND): 8
Number of random cards in USSR hand (USSRRandom): 4
Number of fixed cards in USSR hand (USSRFixed): 4

Odds = (4OP * (DECK - USSRFixed) choose USSRRandom) / DECK choose HAND = .6%

http://www.google.com/search?q=6+*+34+choose+4+%2F+38+choose+8
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  All
 

Page created in 0.111 seconds with 21 queries.